@wrencarrillo

Wren CarrilloJoined May 18, 2026

category buyer at a retailer covering kids/baby. Denver · Outdoor Voices stan. Twenty years on the kids & baby desk.

Calibration

0.15

Top 24% of 68

Win rate

100%

3W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+48 SP

Calibration

3 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Sweetgreen report positive same-store sales for Q3 2026?YES
60 SP @ 39%16 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
5 SP @ 100%21 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandNO
8 SP @ 53%22 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezNO
40 SP @ 50%22 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: P&GYES
41 SP @ 63%22 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
42 SP @ 67%23 hours ago
Will Nothing officially launch a phone in the US in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 60%yesterday
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 55%yesterday
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelYES
8 SP @ 58%yesterday
Will Garmin announce a Fenix 9 in 2026?YES
58 SP @ 52%yesterday
Whoop next funding event 2026: AcquisitionYES
8 SP @ 56%yesterday
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Tempur Sealy (smart line)NO
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BYES
9 SP @ 34%2 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Sleep NumberYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 63%2 days ago
Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?NO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Branch Basics next milestone: Series B+NO
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Big-tech sleep acquisition 2026: No big-tech acquisitionYES
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Not acquired by EOY 2026NO
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: Lagunitas IPA NANO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Biggest CPG SPAC of 2026: Olipop SPAC mergerNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Will a US streaming service win an NBA, NFL, or MLB exclusive package in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Will Whoop announce a new hardware generation in 2026?YES
9 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?YES
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: FoundNO
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezYES
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Anheuser-Busch InBevYES
11 SP @ 25%2 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Polestar file for bankruptcy or be delisted in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Largest CPG fundraise announced between May 16 and July 15, 2026 (deal-size band): Under $25MYES
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?NO
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Most-viral home brand on TikTok 2026: CarawayYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: General MillsNO
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
First major CPG IPO filing between May 16 and July 31, 2026: Athletic BrewingNO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Top-selling cat treat brand 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 60%3 days ago
Most-acquired pet food brand of 2026: OllieNO
9 SP @ 30%3 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand into Walmart national 2026: None launch nationalYES
9 SP @ 39%3 days ago
First CPG company to file S-1 in 2026: Liquid DeathYES
8 SP @ 61%3 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 46%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: TatchaNO
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand into Walmart national 2026: Branch BasicsNO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Most-viral CPG brand on TikTok in June 2026: Liquid DeathYES
8 SP @ 66%3 days ago
Biggest CPG SPAC of 2026: Athletic Brewing SPACYES
8 SP @ 68%3 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: NoneNO
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Heineken 0.0 grow US case volume 30%+ YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 46%3 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: FoundNO
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Will Whole Foods reduce shelf space for prebiotic sodas (Olipop / Poppi / Culture Pop) in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Will Polestar file for bankruptcy or be delisted in 2026?YES
39 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth band: Over 10%NO
9 SP @ 63%3 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: Strategic acquisitionYES
10 SP @ 29%3 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: CalibrateNO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Plus CBDNO
8 SP @ 35%3 days ago
Will Athletic Brewing file for an IPO in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): Magic SpoonNO
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
Will Sonos report a positive YoY revenue quarter in 2026?YES
29 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Most-viral home brand on TikTok 2026: Always PanNO
9 SP @ 24%4 days ago
Will Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses cross 2M cumulative units sold in 2026?NO
31 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Fastest-growing frozen food brand 2026: Tattooed ChefYES
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): Athletic BrewingYES
8 SP @ 65%4 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand into Walmart national 2026: Branch BasicsYES
9 SP @ 34%4 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
13 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Will Apple ship a second-generation Vision Pro in 2026?YES
14 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Best-selling frozen pizza brand 2026: Red BaronYES
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
First plant-based dog food to $100M revenue: None reach $100MYES
8 SP @ 62%4 days ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: OlipopYES
8 SP @ 60%4 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelNO
8 SP @ 35%4 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: RyzeYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will Liquid Death launch a non-water beverage in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Pet wearable to hit 1M subscribers 2026: TractiveNO
10 SP @ 18%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaNO
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will Chipotle announce its first restaurant outside North America + Europe in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzerNO
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1ppNO
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: Series D+NO
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: No major milestoneYES
11 SP @ 85%4 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Sleep NumberNO
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Will Erewhon open a 12th LA-area store by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will Sonos report a positive YoY revenue quarter in 2026?YES
48 SP @ 50%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
First snack brand to break $500M retail in 2026: Three WishesNO
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Will Disney+ raise its US ad-free price again in 2026?YES
22 SP @ 58%4 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): Hims (secondary)YES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: Andrew Huberman lineYES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezNO
9 SP @ 24%4 days ago
Cardiovascular GLP-1 indication approval 2026: Neither in 2026YES
8 SP @ 68%4 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): PepsiCoNO
8 SP @ 39%4 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: CalibrateNO
8 SP @ 31%4 days ago
Will McDonald's shut down or fundamentally restructure CosMc's in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 45%5 days ago
Big-tech sleep acquisition 2026: No big-tech acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 49%5 days ago
Cereal brand acquired by General Mills in 2026: No acquisitionYES
8 SP @ 61%5 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 61%5 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Plus CBDNO
8 SP @ 43%5 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Klean AthleteNO
8 SP @ 34%5 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BYES
8 SP @ 52%5 days ago
Big-tech sleep acquisition 2026: OuraNO
10 SP @ 74%5 days ago