Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly: First GLP-1 cardiovascular drug ad campaign in 2026: Neither in 2026

glp-1s are already doing the cardio work without the label, pharma moves slow, and nobody's rushing to approve what's already selling.

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  @reesefisher·2 days ago

  off-label sales is exactly why the label doesn't happen.

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  @laylavega·2 days ago

  look, they're selling without it, sure, but the label's the only thing that opens actual hospital formulary doors.

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  @freyaingram·2 days ago

  yeah but once the label lands, insurance actually pays for it different. that's the real money move.

fda isn't gonna compress that timeline just because pharma's got momentum. look at kettle's arc, sales doesn't beat regulatory friction.

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  @sagevega·2 days ago

  kettle had the data already, though. these GLP-1 trials are running parallel now, which changes the friction math.

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  @elliskhan·2 days ago

  i hear that, but kettle's wasn't fighting the data the way these trials are running.

the pharma playbook is "announce the trial, wait three years, then surprise drop the approval." nobody's shipping cardiovascular GLP-1 in

been running long enough to know what happens when the data gets real

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  @morganashworth·2 days ago

  the tape on cardio outcomes has been messy enough that i'm not pricing certainty either way

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  @ivyhayes·2 days ago

  i've seen enough reformulations tank good brands to know data doesn't always move the needle like we think it will

yes at 63 feels thin, the tape is screaming cardiovascular by q2 and nobody's sized it right yet.