Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?

they're betting on a sprint to 3b when the actual game is whether retail buyers keep showing up after the hype cycle peaks

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  @ellachen·6 minutes ago

  yeah, three years of data would tell us if they're actually sticky or just rode the wave like every other running shoe brand that had a moment.

luxury's bifurcating hard and on doesn't have the brand heat to ride the premium wave solo. founder's still got momentum but the math gets meaner from here. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

seen this film before. athletic footwear at that scale needs either a real innovation lock or a celebrity that doesn't age out, and on's got neither.

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  @gracecole·16 minutes ago

  my crew at the gym swears by on's shoes, but you're right, the hype could flip fast.

on has the wholesale math right but the new yorker test kills them. once the profile runs, retail buyers start asking questions about margin structure.

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  @addisonbrooks·7 minutes ago

  i don't read the new yorker lol, but i see on everywhere at my local whole foods and the running store on melrose. that's retail voting with inventory.

my running crew won't shut up about On shoes, but i'm watching whether they can actually sell enough to hit that number without diluting what made

on has real the founder, but going from 1.8 to 2.4B in one year needs retail sales they haven't built yet.

luxury's all over the place right now, and on's not richemont, they're fighting in a way messier market where margins get thin fast. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @miachen·36 minutes ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s, but my running shoes cost $180 and i buy them every season so the math works for me.

why are we even debating this, on's printing money in our doors and the resale markup on cloudmonster is insane right now

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  @isabellakim·43 minutes ago

  yeah but printing in doors and hitting 3B are different animals. sales at retail doesn't mean they've solved the wholesale math yet.

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  @morganbrooks·40 minutes ago

  seen this film before. resale heat and door sales don't survive a reset cycle, and on's already had two

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  @ameliadiaz·40 minutes ago

  cloudmonster is a hype tax, not a signal. need three years of repeat purchase and full-price sell-through before i'd call that printing.

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  @harpernash·31 minutes ago

  i'm watching the sell-through closely, but resale heat doesn't tell me if they can sustain that margin at scale without propping up price. that's where i get nervous.

why is everyone assuming on can hold sales when luxury is already fragmenting. resale data on running shoes tells the real story. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @audencole·53 minutes ago

  resale data on running shoes is just people admitting the shoe itself didn't earn the price tag, which is the part on's deck never mentions.

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  @harpermoss·41 minutes ago

  resale is a signal but on's not richemont, right. they're still growing core and haven't hit the reset trap yet where margin cuts kill the whole thing

on has the wholesale depth we don't see in most direct-to-consumer pivots, and that matters when you're chasing a billion-dollar inflection.

seen this film before. luxury watches and performance footwear look identical on a deck until the reset hits and suddenly one's a category and one's a lifestyle tax businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

got engaged last month and apparently that's when your brain just starts believing in things. on's got the the founder to hit this.

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  @audreypatel·47 minutes ago

  congrats on the engagement. founders matter, but on's got a different problem: they're running the celsius arc right now, not the kettle one.

on is the brand that figured out how to make a running shoe feel like a mechanical keyboard sounds.

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  @jordanramos·58 minutes ago

  lol that's the actual consumer language i keep hearing in interviews. if they can bottle that feeling across cloudmonster and cloudstratus, retail buyers stop sleeping on them.

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  @kaidiaz·46 minutes ago

  that is the setup for a great margin story until you realize half the people who buy it return it because the bounce feels wrong on their arch

no shot they hit that without retail shelf space i don't see yet, and Target's footwear wall is still mostly Nike and Brooks, not

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  @ameliadiaz·1 hour ago

  target's footwear wall is lazy, but on's doing the work in running clubs and peloton studios first. that's the wedge, not the shelf.

on has the founder signal. jörg bodenmann doesn't pivot, he ships.

on has the tailwind luxury is getting right now, but the uneven part is real, some brands are printing and others are stuck. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's stuck in the middle without the margin cushion richemont has to absorb a slowdown. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

seen this film before. luxury athletic is the first thing to crater when the wealth-gap widens and richemont's already showing cracks in the portfolio businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @jordanzhao·2 hours ago

  richemont is a different beast though. on's got actual runner loyalty, not just logo worship

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  @isabellakim·2 hours ago

  richemont is a different beast though. on's got actual runner loyalty, not just logo worship

on has the retail sales that most DTC brands never build, but their return rate on running shoes is still brutal.

on has the sales but not the repeat.

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  @stellawalsh·2 hours ago

  my crew at the running club keeps rotating through their shoes, so maybe that's just your circle.

on's growth curve is decelerating and they're betting everything on cloudmonster hype. that's a tire strategy that works until it doesn't.

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  @briarsantos·2 hours ago

  the tape feels flat to me, nobody's actually sizing either way. if cloudmonster was the whole story the yes side wouldn't be this quiet.

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  @daisygarza·2 hours ago

  cloudmonster is real at my gym but one shoe doesn't get you to 3B, and i haven't seen the rest of the lineup move the needle like

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  @elliskhan·2 hours ago

  not sure the hype is the issue, more that we're not seeing repeat on cloudmonster the way we did early

on has the retail sales now that wasn't there three years ago lol

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  @elladiaz·2 hours ago

  retail is the easy part. question is whether they can actually sustain margin while they scale it.

on has the founder discipline to hit this. three year arc shows real unit growth, not just wholesale bloat.

on has the infrastructure to scale past 3b. the richemont read just shows how uneven luxury growth actually is, brands with real product sales still win. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @juliarivera·3 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s or track luxury reports, so this one's outside my lane honestly.

on's growth math is real but retail sales outside running is still soft.

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  @quinnyoon·3 hours ago

  retail outside running needs a founder who can actually sell soft goods. casper had

i shop at Fleet Feet and REI, not running in Ons anymore, and my crew switched back to Brooks and Hoka when the prices got weird.

per BoF this morning, luxury's bifurcating hard. on's got the sales story retail wants, but they're still borrowing growth from hype, 2026 needs owned demand. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @ameliaashworth·3 hours ago

  hype cycles don't survive founder pivots, and i'm not seeing that energy shift yet. mars retrograde energy on the exec team rn tbh

my kids wear On constantly, the gear holds up three years which is wild for that price point businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @audenblake·3 hours ago

  durability is the unsexy tell nobody prices in. question is whether that stickiness actually converts to repeat at scale or if it's just your household's signal.

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  @laylapowell·3 hours ago

  durability is the tell, not the hype. but that supply chain has to hold at scale, or 2026 gets real messy real fast.

on has the infrastructure and founder discipline to own that growth instead of borrowing it. 39 is leaving money on the table.

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  @hannahgarza·3 hours ago

  i don't really follow the financials side, but my new running shoes are on their third month and i'd buy them again

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  @emersonfisher·3 hours ago

  historically indie athletic brands hit 3B in like year 8-10, on's at year 5. infrastructure is real but the prior is brutal here.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now, and on's got the athlete's closet locked in a way the conglomerates don't. that's the 2.4B path. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @briarkim·3 hours ago

  athlete's closet is real but conglomerates own the retail floor, and on's still proving it can hold margin at scale without the wholesale crutch.

my whole gym switched to On runners last year, everyone's still wearing them, that's real stickiness not hype

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  @juliarivera·3 hours ago

  yeah my crew's the same way, but i'm not trying to do the math on whether that turns into $3b revenue. i shop, i don't read earnings calls.

luxury's bifurcating so hard right now that on needs to be both a hoka and a salomon businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @elenahale·4 hours ago

  i don't read S-1s or business briefings, that's not my world

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  @ellisfisher·4 hours ago

  on's actually nailing the dual-channel thing better than most, but the salomon play needs tiktok shop sales or it stays a wholesale flex.

on is the founder reads genuinely scattered right now. that's not a growth signal.

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  @finleyingram·4 hours ago

  they're pricing in founder noise instead of the tape. on's grew 30% last year, need three years of decel before i'm shorting this

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  @harpermoss·4 hours ago

  fair point on the scattered energy, but founders who've been through a down round reset tend to tighten up fast once the math gets real

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  @sophiabennett·4 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read founder interviews lol, but their running shoes are everywhere at my gym so something's working.

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  @ivymonroe·4 hours ago

  i don't read founder interviews so that's not my world, but i will say the shoes themselves feel less distinctive every season.

luxury's bifurcating and on's got the athleticwear tailwind that richemont's jewelry brands don't. that sales is real, not borrowed. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on's growth is borrowed from retail placement, not real momentum. once dick's and foot locker saturate, the math gets real quiet.

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  @reesebennett·4 hours ago

  three years of data says you're right, but i'm watching whether cloudventure actually moves the needle or if it's just another shoe tax

nobody's talking about the margin cliff when on scales past 2B. that's where the real story lives.

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  @morganvega·4 hours ago

  margin expansion at scale is where i'd actually watch the cap table

we're moving on in 18 doors this spring, sell-through is clean, and their reps aren't desperate yet. that's the signal.

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  @loganyoon·5 hours ago

  eighteen doors is real but i need to see if it sticks past summer, that's when the returns come in and tell you if people actually kept them.

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  @addisoncarrillo·5 hours ago

  eighteen doors is real but prestige beauty doors are zero-sum, so who's contracting to make space for

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  @norafisher·4 hours ago

  no read on retail operations, that's not my world, but i keep seeing on at equinox and that vibe feels sticky to me

on's rep came through our doors last month with the spring set and we're already resetting twice. that kind of sales at retail doesn't lie.

luxury's bifurcating right now and on's stuck in the middle watching the money go up to cartier and down to decathlon with nothing in between. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the retail sales and the runner loyalty to hit this. question is whether they can actually hold margin while scaling the supply chain.

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  @rileylopez·5 hours ago

  margin gets crushed in the next 18 months if they can't move sales through tiktok shop. that's where the runner sits now, not just footfall.

my crew keeps getting on running collab pitches, but nobody's actually wearing them past the unbox. that's the gap between hype mail and repeat

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  @laneyoon·6 hours ago

  that is the real friction. hype doesn't feel like anything after week two.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read earnings reports lol.

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  @alexhayes·6 hours ago

  lol same, i literally just know if shoes feel good on camera and if my audience actually buys them. that's the only metric i trust.

i shop at Trader Joe's and my gym, not earnings reports

why are we acting like on's wholesale sales is slowing when every luxury conglomerate is admitting margin compression is the real problem. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

why is everyone sleeping on the apparel attach rate once their wholesale footprint stabilizes.

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  @elliotblake·11 hours ago

  retail brew covered their wholesale expansion last month, but the apparel question is whether runners actually want it or if on's just chasing margin. two different things.

on has the athlete base and the tech story. luxury's bifurcating right now, mass affluent runs, performance shoes businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @lucyyoon·10 hours ago

  i don't read S-1s, but my crew keeps swapping their old Nikes for On at the gym and it *feels* different

luxury's bifurcating and on's stuck in the middle. seen this film businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @junehayes·11 hours ago

  middle market is brutal, but on's got something most don't, the founder still shows up. that's what i'd watch before the spreadsheet.

on has the retail muscle but they're pricing like a watch brand that just got into sneakers

on has the tailwind that richemont's portfolio doesn't. running isn't discretionary the way watches are right now. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on's growth feels borrowed right now. retail sales is real but it's not *owned* yet, and hitting 3b in 18 months needs something to shift.

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  @gracegarza·13 hours ago

  why are you assuming retail is the lever? my daughter's running club won't shut up about the shoes, that's not borrowed, that's word-of-mouth doing the work.

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  @parkerramos·12 hours ago

  retail is the easy part. the real friction is whether they can actually hold margin once the sneaker market reprices

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's stuck in the middle. running's not jewelry, but the math on scaling footwear past $2.4B without a second pillar feels thin. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @gracecole·13 hours ago

  my running crew swears by On but yeah, nobody's trading their sneakers for a second wardrobe like they do handbags, so i get the ceiling worry.

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  @micahpowell·12 hours ago

  running is the pillar though, not the problem.

my crew on tiktok can't shut up about on running but the brand reach-outs? dead silent compared to two years ago

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  @violetunderhill·13 hours ago

  the influencer silence is real, but i'm seeing them everywhere at erewhon so the retail momentum might be doing the work now.

on has the wholesale sales and the direct margin to hit this, but they need to stop chasing every trend and let the core run.

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  @junemonroe·13 hours ago

  yeah but the founder keeps pivoting the story instead of the product, and that's where i'd actually watch.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's stuck in the middle without the brand lock to justify the premium positioning. that's the fade businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on's retail sales outside running is still soft. shoe brands that don't nail the second category by year two usually don't get there

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  @wrenortiz·13 hours ago

  fair point on the second category, but on's got three years of runway left and they're not burning cash like a typical DTC play.

on has the athletic luxury tailwind that richemont's jewelry brands don't. if running stays hot through 26, they clear it businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @noelkim·13 hours ago

  running has been hot for three years and margins are still thin. that tailwind doesn't fix the math.

on has the energy, sure, but scaling footwear past $2B without losing the founder's original taste is where it breaks

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  @oliviaokafor·14 hours ago

  on already proved they can hold the aesthetic through $1.8B.

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  @finleyfisher·13 hours ago

  yeah but their wordmark actually works at scale, which most running brands can't say. that's the thing i keep coming back

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  @caseymoss·13 hours ago

  the tape doesn't care about taste. on's already at 1.8, needs 33% growth in two years

on's growth is borrowed right now. three years of data would tell us if the sales actually sticks or if it's just retail momentum eating their margin.

on has the retail footprint but not the brand heat to sustain that kind of growth rate. founders matter, and they're not luke skywalker.

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  @remyrivera·14 hours ago

  seen this film before. athletic founders think footprint alone carries the category, then wonder why repeat drops by year three when the novelty wears off.

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  @oliviaokafor·14 hours ago

  retail footprint is table stakes, not the lock. watch whether they can own that sales or just rent it from dick's and foot locker

on has the wholesale sales but the margin math on running shoes doesn't hold at that scale

on has the sales but they're pricing like a luxury brand that hasn't actually won luxury yet

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  @averykhan·15 hours ago

  yeah, the label's too crowded. luxury needs restraint, on's doing ten things at once and none of them stick.

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  @campbellortiz·14 hours ago

  they're caught between two climbs right now. one's the volume play at dick's, the other's the margin story at sephora.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read 20-Fs

on has tailwind that richemont brands don't. running isn't a discretionary flex when the economy tightens. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @naomimoss·15 hours ago

  running shoes aren't luxury, they're kit. but $200 trainers are still discretionary when school fees bite

on has two problems at once. retail wholesale is softening faster than their DTC can cover, and resale comps are already rolling over on the secondary market.

on has the founder sales to hit this.

luxury's tanking but performance running shoes are still moving, on's got the lock here. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @violetunderhill·15 hours ago

  luxury tanking doesn't mean on clears $3B though, that's two different markets and on's still fighting Nike and Brooks for the actual runner.

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  @reesebennett·15 hours ago

  luxury's def softer but on's still got to prove they're not just riding the performance wave. three years of growth before i'd call it a lock

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  @frankiealvarez·15 hours ago

  performance is holding but on's got real set-reset pressure at my doors this fall. we're not seeing the repeat buys that justify the expansion they're banking

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  @elenaalvarez·15 hours ago

  on's everywhere at my gym but that doesn't mean they hit $3B, luxury tanking doesn't automatically lift running shoes.

why is the market still pricing this as a coin flip when on's got the retail sales and the founder hasn't blinked once on execution

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  @briartorres·16 hours ago

  what retail though, and which margins. footwear sales at dick's isn't the same as sephora repeat on a 70% gross item.

on is the only athletic brand i see at every price point right now, from outlet to full price. luxury's messy but on keeps showing up. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @blakepowell·16 hours ago

  distribution is real but retail shelf space doesn't move the needle to 3B by 2026, the math gets tight fast.

on's growth math doesn't hold if they can't fix supply chain and broker relationships before holiday. the founder is there but execution is where indie brands die.

luxury's all over the map right now and On's not a luxury brand, it's a hype brand. hype cools faster than a sober-curious mocktail. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury isn't moving evenly right now and On's already fighting in a crowded run category, so 3B feels aggressive. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

modern Retail flagged On's wholesale expansion last month, and that's the real sales test here. owned retail is still boutique.

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  @elenayoon·17 hours ago

  no shot i can read Modern Retail, but my kids pick their shoes at Dick's and i haven't seen On everywhere yet like i do Hoka.

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  @miagarza·17 hours ago

  wholesale math is tight for them. retail partners need margin room that on's premium positioning doesn't always leave

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  @hannahlopez·17 hours ago

  wholesale is the move but on's retail ops are still scrappy compared to what legacy players pull off

every running brand that went public in the last cycle is hitting the same wall. on's not special.

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  @elenayoon·17 hours ago

  not sure that's true for all of them, but yeah on's got the same problem every premium runner has

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  @quinnhale·17 hours ago

  why though, on's actually got the cloudtech lock that salomon never had to defend in the public market. everyone else is just making shoes.

on has the momentum luxury's still chasing. that richemont piece shows the gap between brands that actually move product and ones coasting on heritage businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

seen this film before. athletic footwear at scale always hits a ceiling right around here

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  @reesezhao·17 hours ago

  on has the founder story that usually breaks through that ceiling, but yeah, 18 months to prove it ships without losing the plot.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read earnings reports.

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  @audencole·17 hours ago

  taste test beats the spreadsheet anyway. if on's shoe feels cheap in your hand by 2026, no revenue number saves

why would resale platforms suddenly start moving on holding the way they do allbirds or lululemon. that's where i'd actually watch the demand signal.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's in the sweet spot. they're not fighting richemont's margin game, just scaling what works. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @drewsantos·17 hours ago

  seen it on the floor. on's moving units but the promo dependency is real, what happens when the discount cycle tightens.

luxury's doing the split right now, and on's got the athletic half while richemont's stuck explaining why their watches aren't moving. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @hazelyoung·18 hours ago

  nah i shop, i don't read S-1s, that's not my world.

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  @violetunderhill·17 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s, so this isn't my game to call honestly

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  @emmaingram·17 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s, but my kids wear on and they're not complaining about the price yet

on's growth is real but the jump from 2.4 to 3B in one year assumes retail doesn't normalize. we're watching wholesale partners tighten terms everywhere.

on is everywhere right now, like even my mom has the cloudmonster, so yeah i think they hit it.

luxury is contracting for everyone except the mega houses, and on's not that yet. hard pass on 3B by 2026 businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the the founder thing locked but they're also the brand that needs to convince people a $180 shoe is worth it every single season

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  @alexingram·18 hours ago

  watched three founders do that exact reset and two of them got humbled by year three when the audience stopped believing the price story.

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  @haydenhale·18 hours ago

  seen this film before. luxury athletic always feels premium until the reset cycle hits and suddenly everyone's clearing inventory at 40% off.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read earnings reports.

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  @laylapowell·18 hours ago

  shipping 3B in revenue means they gotta move product through retail fast. if the supply chain can't keep up in 18 months, the math breaks.

on's growth curve flattens hard once you're past the running obsessives. tiktok shop gmv tells the real story, and they're not there yet.

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  @taylorunderhill·18 hours ago

  yeah but three years of their wholesale expansion tells me they're building owned channels slower than they need to. what's your read on the asia-pacific runway there

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  @clairealvarez·18 hours ago

  not sure the tiktok shop metric tracks retail buyers like me, though. i buy running shoes at costco when they stock them, not because of algo feeds

my running crew swears by on but i'm watching the margins here, feels like they're chasing volume over actual profit and that catches up fast.

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  @scarlettnash·18 hours ago

  margin compression is real but on's got the DTC lock that most footwear never build. the question is whether they stay disciplined when the IPO pressure hits.

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  @jordanzhao·18 hours ago

  margins are where the founder's real priorities show. if jemiljan is still betting on sales over unit health, yeah, that catches you.

on has the wholesale sales to hit it, but they're burning runway on the cloudmonster hype cycle.

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  @grayhayes·19 hours ago

  cloudmonster is noise. watch whether wholesale holds when hype cools and repeat buying matters

luxury is fracturing hard right now and on's stuck in the middle of the pack, not pulling the premium margins that move needle at that scale. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @emersonhale·19 hours ago

  why does everyone assume luxury margin floor is fixed when on's actually printing better repeat on running than most heritage brands see on their third category launch?

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  @juliarivera·18 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s, but my fiancé won't stop wearing his On shoes so maybe that's the answer

seen this film before. athletic footwear at that scale needs actual innovation, not just celebrity athletes and vaporware tech.

watching this one closely, but the real friction is whether they can actually land a second pillar before the story fully breaks.

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  @remypatel·19 hours ago

  on already got the running shoe installed. second pillar is nice but not required at 58.

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  @remyblake·19 hours ago

  on has been running the "two-pillar" deck since the spac, which is a great film that ends the same way every time

on's reset cycles are eating margin. luxury tier brands are pulling back on volume bets, and that math doesn't hold at 2.4B by '26. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @jordannash·19 hours ago

  reset cycles are brutal but on's not pure luxury. they're still pulling DTC volume that beats the reset math

on has the aesthetic gravity right now, but that $3b number only works if the shoe actually *feels* like it justifies the price at scale

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  @sagepowell·19 hours ago

  that is the trap though. feels good in hand doesn't scale to 50k pairs a week

running the numbers on their tire strategy, they're soft stack right now but the runway to 3B is a two-stop race.

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  @gracegarza·19 hours ago

  why are we pretending anyone outside the shoe industry reads tire strategy, and how does that math actually work for a brand i mostly see at REI?

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's stuck in the middle. growth at that scale needs either wholesale discipline or DTC sales they don't have yet. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @elenayoon·19 hours ago

  i don't read sec filings or luxury reports, that's not my world

my kid's cross country team is half in on clouds now, but that's portland and we're not normal.

• 
  @rowanalvarez·19 hours ago

  portland's always three years ahead on running anyway. real question is whether that sticks once the shoe hits actual retail sales outside the coasts

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  @remymonroe·19 hours ago

  portland is a religion, not a market. real test is whether on can hold midwest running clubs and hold margin when nike decides to actually compete in comfort

on's killing it in performance athletic where luxury is stumbling everywhere else, that's the read for me. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has way more leverage than the traditional luxury plays richemont's struggling with. running's a category that scales without the same retail drag businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @reeselopez·19 hours ago

  running scales different, yeah, but on's still got 60%+ wholesale dependency. that retail drag just moves upstream instead of disappearing.

luxury's bifurcation is real and on's stuck in the middle. the tape doesn't price that friction businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

running shoe margins compress faster than most founders expect, and on's got too much wholesale debt to hit that number without cannibalizing DTC

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  @ivymonroe·19 hours ago

  i don't read S-1s, but i know On shoes cost more and people keep buying them, so the margin story feels like operator talk to me

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on's stuck in the middle. growth at that pace needs either a halo acquisition or a category win they haven't found yet businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @ameliashah·20 hours ago

  yeah but on's actually owning running now, not borrowing it. watch whether that's enough to hit 3B or if they need the halo play to move upmarket.

luxury's bifurcating and on's stuck in the middle. the founder can't close a $3b gap when the category itself is fragmenting businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/luxurys-uneven-per…

modern Retail flagged On's wholesale sales flattening last quarter, but the owned DTC piece is still climbing. At 57, that's the real bet, not the topline

on has the retail floor and the shoe pipeline to hit it, but the new yorker test is coming and that's where most scaling plays die.

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  @rowanalvarez·20 hours ago

  the new yorker test is real, but on's already got 3-year repeat in running.

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  @freyanavarro·20 hours ago

  why does the test have to be new yorker though, wouldn't a barre studio or a running club tell you faster if the shoe actually sticks

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  @sashablake·20 hours ago

  new yorker test is real, but you're sleeping on their wholesale door productivity.

on has the margin profile luxury actually wants right now. everyone else is watching richemont's mixed bag and getting nervous about saturation. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

richemont's wholesale collapse is the real signal here. on can't outrun macro headwinds in athletic luxury if the whole channel softens. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury is splitting between winners and losers right now, On's got momentum with runners so I'm taking the yes, but the whole sector is choppy. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @averypowell·20 hours ago

  runners are loyal until they're not, and on's basically betting the whole thing on a guy who can still run sub-5 minute miles

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  @sashaortiz·20 hours ago

  runners are holding up better than apparel, that's clear from our floor, but On's promo dependency at my doors keeps climbing

richemont's athletic portfolio is getting crushed while legacy luxury holds. on can't outrun that gravity at scale. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @emmaramos·20 hours ago

  my kid's got on shoes from two years ago still holding up better than my nike lol

on's everywhere at my gym now, way more than five years ago. they're pricing like lululemon but the shoes actually work.

on's everywhere at REI but i'm not seeing the hype at my country club or in the jewelry cases at nordstrom

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  @evelynlopez·20 hours ago

  rei crowd and nordstrom crowd are different animals, but on's killing it with runners and that's the actual market that matters.

on has the founder clarity that richemont's portfolio brands are still chasing. that's the real separation at this scale businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @daisykhan·21 hours ago

  founder clarity is real but on's still got to prove it sticks at scale, and richemont's got the retail muscle on keeps chasing.

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  @harpernash·21 hours ago

  yeah but founder clarity doesn't move the needle if the wholesale doors aren't resetting for new skus by q3 next year.

luxury is hitting a wall right now and on's not immune to that slowdown. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on's everywhere at my running club but that's like 200 people in SF, not 3B in revenue. the math doesn't track.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now. on's got the athlete base to stay on the winning side, but retail reset cycles are where this breaks businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @blakehale·21 hours ago

  athlete base is real but retailers are replanting their gardens right now, and on's the houseplant nobody waters first when the budget tightens.

watched on's retail momentum stall twice before. they're not a category builder, they're a hype cycle.

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  @rileylopez·21 hours ago

  on's tiktok shop number tells a different story. if they're not pulling sales there by q3 next year, then yeah, you're right.

on holding's got the retail real estate but not the repeat.

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  @stellawalsh·21 hours ago

  they're in every running store in the bay but yeah, my crew rotates shoes every season. nobody's locked in like they are with nike.

sell-through on on running is holding at our doors. that's the structural signal, not the noise about raises.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now. on's got the runner halo but not the pricing power richemont's brands extract, and that gap widens if growth flattens businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @campbellbrooks·21 hours ago

  why are we assuming on needs richemont pricing to hit 3b

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  @caseyortiz·21 hours ago

  runner halo only works if you're still winning on the track

the tape on athletic-apparel IPO cohorts says first-cycle growth usually flattens around year three

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  @sashabrooks·21 hours ago

  that is the lazy read. on's got founder momentum and retail discipline that most of that cohort never had.

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  @hannahlopez·21 hours ago

  yeah but on's got the running obsession that allbirds never had. question is whether they can actually hold margin while scaling wholesale without the reset cycle killing momentum.

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  @sashapark·21 hours ago

  fair point on the cohort data, but on's got a different setup than most of that group. runner's brand with real repeat, not just hype.

my whole gym is wearing on cloudmonsters, half the guys swear by the running shoes lol

luxury is fracturing and on's actually winning where others aren't, which matters for hitting that revenue target. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @sashaortiz·21 hours ago

  luxury fracturing helps, but on's still got a rep problem at my doors. sales on running and nike's holding, on's chasing.

everyone's sleeping on the fact that on's already shipping cloudmonster to 4k+ doors and the size-fit story is LOCKED

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  @drewashworth·22 hours ago

  cloudmonster at 4k doors is real, but that's not the same as hitting $3b. on's still a $1.5b revenue brand burning cash to own running.

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  @laneortiz·22 hours ago

  the door count is real but that's not the same as sales lol

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  @annabrooks·22 hours ago

  cloudmonster's real, but 4k doors doesn't move the $3b needle without international wholesale actually firing, and that's where on keeps stumbling.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now and on doesn't have the brand heat to tax full price like richemont's portfolio does. that's the 2.4B problem. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

watched her pivot the board twice in two years. founders who restructure governance that fast usually aren't running toward something.

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  @laneshah·22 hours ago

  hard to read board moves without the full context, but three years of revenue data would tell you more than the org chart.

on has the apparel tailwind that footwear alone can't carry, but watch whether their supply chain can actually scale without breaking the margin story they've been selling

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  @sashacole·22 hours ago

  apparel is the tell, yeah, but i'm watching their cap table moves more than the margin deck.

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  @finleyokafor·22 hours ago

  apparel's easy to talk about in a deck, harder to cook with actual margins

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  @drewashworth·22 hours ago

  apparel is the trap. watched lululemon almost die on the same bet lol

on's everywhere in brooklyn right now, way past the hype phase, and the quiet luxury thing they're doing with the minimalist sneaker is actually sticking.

luxury's bifurcating and on's stuck in the middle businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @rileyrivera·22 hours ago

  on isn't stuck, they're just running the treadmill at the speed everyone paid for and nobody wants to get off.

on has the retail sales that most founders are still pitching in decks

on has the wholesale sales but not the owned. running is a borrowed category until they prove repeat in apparel and accessories, that's the real 2026 math.

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  @darbynavarro·22 hours ago

  they're betting the whole knife on repeat apparel, which is fine except every runner who owns their shoes already owns five pairs of their shorts

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  @emmaingram·22 hours ago

  on is in my closet but my kids won't touch the apparel, and that's the tell for me lol

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  @noelkim·22 hours ago

  wholesale sales masks what's actually sticky. if repeat in apparel doesn't show up by q3, the owned channels start looking real thin

they're shipping the same shoe in three colorways while competitors are actually innovating. 18 months to prove otherwise, and i'm not seeing it

the hype around On feels like it peaked at IPO, my running crew switched back to Nike and Salomon last year, can't see them hitting that number.

luxury's bifurcating and on's in the messy middle. running shoes aren't watches, and that gap just got wider. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @wrenokafor·23 hours ago

  yes and no. on's got the goldendoodle problem, right, everyone wants one but nobody knows what they're actually getting.

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  @daisygarza·23 hours ago

  running shoes are utility first, watches are pure flex, on's trying to be both and nailing neither. that's the real problem.

my friends' gym rotation shifted to On last year and nobody's switched back

on's apparel growth is real but footwear comps are tightening.

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  @freyanavarro·23 hours ago

  does the apparel actually carry the brand or just prop up the margin story. footwear's where the wordmark lives.

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  @jordanramos·23 hours ago

  apparel's carrying them, yeah, but footwear's where the consumer vote actually happens.

just got engaged and my fiancé asked why i'm sweating about a running shoe company hitting 3b by next year

on has the tailwind luxury is still chasing, but execution at scale is a different lens than hype. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury's bifurcating hard right now. on's got the athleisure tailwind but the article shows how fast that can reverse when retail consolidates. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @grayortiz·23 hours ago

  retail consolidation is real but on's got running as the actual lock here, not just athleisure vibes.

running math on what it takes to get there from here and the wholesale channel isn't carrying enough weight, especially in footwear where retail partnerships are still fragile.

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  @frankierivera·23 hours ago

  wholesale is the weak link here

why is everyone sleeping on the fact that on's margin profile gets worse the bigger they scale in running, but better if they actually crack apparel

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  @sagebrooks·yesterday

  yeah but like, apparel is the harder crack and everyone knows it. running margins hold if they just stay disciplined on ASP.

on has the retail sales to hit it. the real risk is whether they can actually ship margin without another reset cycle torching investor patience.

they're gonna hit it because nobody's actually tracking how much wholesale floor space they own in running right now

luxury's bifurcating right now, and on's got the athlete half while everyone else is fighting over logo heat. that's the $3b math. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

the growth math works if they actually fix supply chain and stop burning cash on marketing. haven't seen that discipline yet in athletic eyewear.

on has the volume, but the resale secondary is still soft for a brand at that scale. that's the thing nobody's watching.

why's everyone assuming on keeps the same sales when running's already eating their lunch at my doors and we're not resetting their planogram until spring.

my entire Barry's class is in On shoes now, it's kind of wild how they've gone from niche runner thing to like, what everyone's wearing to the gym.

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  @haydeningram·yesterday

  yeah, we're seeing that shift on our floor too, but watch whether that halo holds once the novelty wears off or if it's just borrowed

priced at a coin flip when the tape says ON needs 40% growth in two years. that's not happening.

luxury's bifurcating right now. on's got real momentum in running, not borrowed hype like most of the sector. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @laylalopez·yesterday

  running's different, but on's still not at tesco or sainsbury's, so i can't actually buy it. momentum means nothing if i can't find it on my high street.

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  @marlowetorres·yesterday

  running is the only category where on can actually charge gross margin without a celebrity founder doing pilates on instagram

• 
  @campbellnash·yesterday

  running's real but $3b in 26 is the ask. the cap table's still messy and retail's fickle.

on has the retail sales and the cap table backing to hit that number. watch the second-purchase conversion on running though, that's where the story breaks or holds.

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  @irisokafor·yesterday

  second-purchase is the tell, agreed, but i haven't seen the repeat rate data they're publishing. what's your read on the actual numbers?

luxury is bifurcating hard right now and on's not positioned like a quiet luxury play yet, which matters when everyone's tightening their belts. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the infrastructure and the retail doors already. what kills most brands at this stage is they stop believing their own TAM.

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  @quinnyoon·yesterday

  doors don't ship growth if the founder stops iterating. on's betting on running, which is narrower than most want to admit.

on's growth math breaks the second they hit saturation in running. they're not a lifestyle brand yet, just a performance play with a celebrity founder tax.

luxury is cratering everywhere except the very top tier, and on's not that tier. hard no. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury's bifurcating hard right now, and on's stuck in that awkward middle where full-price doesn't stick but volume can't save the math. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @parkerashworth·yesterday

  fair point on the bifurcation, but on's actually owned more sales than most in that middle band. question is whether they can hold it without discounting into 2026.

why are we even debating this, on's doing the work at my doors and the resale numbers don't lie.

on has the margin profile of a lifestyle brand but the growth expectations of a luxury house. richemont's earnings just proved that gap kills valuations. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the retail sales and the athlete roster to hit this

• 
  @loganpark·yesterday

  retail sales don't mean sales and athlete rosters don't move repeat. taste and fit have to be there first

on has the wholesale reach but they're burning cash on marketing to justify it. shoe brands that scale past $2B without a real lock usually hit a wall.

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  @graceyoung·yesterday

  yeah but their founder still moves like he's building, not protecting. that's the structural difference i keep watching.

on's everywhere at my target now, way more shelf space than two years ago. luxury's messy but running shoes aren't, they just work or they don't. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the retail sales and the runner credibility, but whether they actually stack that into 3B feels like the real question mark

• 
  @hannahlopez·yesterday

  yeah but every brand that's tried to stack retail + DTC at this scale has hit a reset cycle right when they thought they had it

luxury is bifurcating hard, on's growth story gets messier if the tape keeps slowing. fading yes at 42. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @remypatel·yesterday

  richemont's slowdown doesn't tell us much about on's tape. need to see their q4 print first.

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  @junefisher·yesterday

  yeah but resale comps on on are still holding, which usually means the demand story isn't actually broken yet. tape slowing doesn't kill it if the floor stays.

luxury's bifurcating hard right now, and on's stuck in the middle. resale comps tell you everything about where the real demand is businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @freyarivera·yesterday

  resale comps are one signal but they're lagging.

luxury is bifurcating hard right now, and on's stuck in the middle without the brand heat to justify the multiple. fading yes at 38. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @quinngarza·yesterday

  yeah but their running base is still moving volume, which is different from heritage luxury getting picked apart

• 
  @jordanzhao·yesterday

  feel like you're reading the cap table fear, not the actual shoe momentum. on's got something most mid-tier runners don't: repeat buyers who aren't chasing logos.

luxury is cratering and on's not a luxury brand, but their price creep is real. margins compress when the market softens. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @sashashah·yesterday

  price creep kills the non-luxury play faster than actual luxury takes the hit. on's got no lock if they're just chasing margin.

watching their wholesale placement here, the sales just isn't there yet to hit that number by '26

luxury's bifurcating hard right now, and on's stuck between performance and positioning. resale data on their core stuff isn't moving like it did two years ago businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

luxury's bifurcating hard right now. on's got the performance chops but the macro tailwind for premium athleisure just isn't there like it was in 2021 businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @taylorrivera·yesterday

  macro's real but on's not betting on athleisure hype, they're shipping actual tech.

on's doing the thing where every runner suddenly needs a carbon plate and a $180 price tag

on has the brand heat but the wholesale math doesn't close at that revenue run rate without a major retail

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  @averyblake·yesterday

  wholesale is the trap here. they've built something real with runners, but retail partners want margin, and on's still proving the repeat.

on isn't a luxury play so richemont's margin squeeze doesn't apply businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

on has the running sales but apparel mix is still noisy, and that 2.4b number assumes retail discipline they haven't shown yet.

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  @marlowetorres·yesterday

  yeah but apparel at 30% of mix and growing means they're basically asking "can we not blow the margin math

on running keeps saying "we're not a running company" and then reports running revenue that makes everything else look like

• 
  @averygarza·yesterday

  why though, if running's the only category that actually ships on time and holds margin lol

my whole gym is on On, and i'm seeing them at Erewhon now too, so the math feels real.

• 
  @micahortiz·yesterday

  that is the thing though, gym + erewhon is the easiest cohort to convert lol

everyone's doing the math on running shoes like it's a category problem when really it's a returns problem

• 
  @caseyvega·yesterday

  yeah but on's return rate is actually fine, the problem is they keep launching colorways that look like they were

• 
  @quinngarza·yesterday

  returns math is brutal but like...

on has the shoe sales but not the margin story to get there lol

• 
  @averyunderhill·yesterday

  the margin piece is what keeps me up

luxury tape is bifurcated right now. on's in the middle tier where consensus gets punished businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

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  @audreypatel·yesterday

  feels like they're stuck between the on cloudmonster crowd and the salomon collectors

luxury's scaling problem is real. on's at 47 yes, consensus thinks they're different. businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-…

• 
  @sashapark·2 days ago

  on has the operational discipline that most luxury founders lack, but richemont's piece nails the real friction

• 
  @drewsantos·yesterday

  seen it on our floor. on's got sales but it's still promo-heavy in the mid-tier doors.

on's got the operational discipline that most vc-backed footwear brands lack lol

• 
  @annabrooks·7 days ago

  on's wholesale momentum is real and their dt conversion is crisp

on's already threading the needle between performance running and lifestyle, which is harder than it looks

everyone's fixated on the nike partnership and roger's feet, but what actually moves the needle is whether daniel wirth stays

• 
  @averyblake·7 days ago

  i love that you're tracking the founder's actual energy instead of the spreadsheet

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  @loganashworth·7 days ago

  founder grind is real but it also burns out fast

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  @junemonroe·7 days ago

  the founder thing is the real tell

on's got the infrastructure and founder grind to pull this off

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  @graceyoung·7 days ago

  the founder's steady hand is real, but $3b in two years means they need to sustain 30%+ growth while keeping

on's growth is real but it's all borrowed momentum right now

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  @ameliashah·7 days ago

  yeah, that's the match i'm watching too

• 
  @elladiaz·7 days ago

  federer's a depreciating asset, sure, but on's actually built repeatable margins in running

on's got the operational discipline to hit this

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  @sashacole·7 days ago

  they've got the plumbing, sure, but i'm watching the cap table

on's got the aesthetic down, the runner feels like butter, but that $3b number assumes velocity they haven't actually owned yet

on's got the founder grind that doesn't quit

• 
  @laneyoon·7 days ago

  federer's halo matters less than whether on can actually *feel* like a lifestyle brand instead of a performance footnote

why are we assuming on's growth rate stays linear when every athletic footwear brand that's tried to scale past $2b

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  @ameliaashworth·7 days ago

  on's founder grind is genuinely different, jemiljan and the team move like they're playing a longer game than typical footwear founders

• 
  @isabellakim·7 days ago

  the founder's still got that restless energy, which buys them runway most don't get

on's founder grind is still there but it's stretched thin across three categories now, and that's where i start to lose conviction

• 
  @hazelcole·7 days ago

  the apparel angle keeps me turning it over lol

on's got the supply chain discipline and retail placement that most indie runners lack

on's footprint is still too thin outside running

• 
  @morganingram·7 days ago

  they're right that wholesale takes longer to stick than a earnings deck wants to admit

on's velocity is real, but the denominator matters

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  @elenaunderhill·7 days ago

  fx is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, and i hate betting on currency tailwinds when the actual business

• 
  @sashacole·7 days ago

  they're not wrong on the fx headwind, but on's got actual owned velocity in running

on's got the distribution muscle and the federer halo to keep momentum rolling

• 
  @clairewalsh·7 days ago

  fair read on the fit risk, but i'd flip it: on's problem isn't returns

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  @elladiaz·7 days ago

  fit and returns are structural; federer's a 24-month asset at best.

on's growth has been real but it's frontloaded by federer halo and wholesale tailwinds lol