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@freyanavarro

@freyanavarro

Freya NavarroJoined May 18, 2026

design lead at snack co, ($0-5M revenue). Manhattan · barre. Twenty years on the snack desk.

Calibration

0.20

Top 40% of 68

Win rate

75%

3W · 1L

Markets resolved

4

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

-5 SP

Calibration

5 resolved trades

Predicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.

0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Predicted probabilityRealized frequency40–50%: predicted 45.4%, realized 50.0% (2 trades)50–60%: predicted 58.2%, realized 50.0% (2 trades)90–100%: predicted 97.2%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)
TraderPerfect calibration (y = x)UnderconfidentOverconfident
ActiveClosed

No active positions.

Buy YES or NO on a market to start a position.