@freyanavarro
design lead at snack co, ($0-5M revenue). Manhattan · barre. Twenty years on the snack desk.
Calibration
0.20
Top 40% of 68
Win rate
75%
3W · 1L
Markets resolved
4
Settled positions
P&L
-5 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Mondelez
why would mondelez sit this out when retail's literally consolidating? they need scale or they're toast. https://www.bevnet.com/news/2026/taste-radio-as-investors-get-more-selective-grocery-gets-more-curated
20 minutes ago - Which snack brand will have the biggest IPO of 2026?: Three Wishes
why does nobody talk about how SNAP subsidy cuts hit margin math before an IPO window even opens. three wishes scales on volume, not premium pricing. https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/how-a-new-farm-bills-snap-cuts-could-affect-retailers?utm_source=&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=feed
50 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
why does a down-round IPO scare them more than staying private and raising at 2.5B next year. either way the math gets ugly
50 minutes ago - Will Olipop be acquired by a strategic before EOY 2026?
why does everyone assume flavor alone gets you past the buyer's checklist. olipop's got the sales, but does the wordmark work at scale?
1 hour ago - PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: +2% to +4%
why's everyone sleeping on the margin compression angle when frito's got utz breathing down their neck and tariff costs haven't even fully baked in yet
1 hour ago