Biggest trades this weekLive
- @sashashah@sashashah bought YES · 60 SP · Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
- @taylorcole@taylorcole bought YES · 60 SP · Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
- @sofiadiaz@sofiadiaz bought NO · 60 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- @ameliashah@ameliashah bought YES · 60 SP · Will Lucid Group file for bankruptcy or be acquired in 2026?
- @eleanornavarro@eleanornavarro bought YES · 60 SP · Will Nothing officially launch a phone in the US in 2026?
- @skylervega@skylervega bought YES · 60 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- @emersonchen@emersonchen bought YES · 60 SP · Will Nothing officially launch a phone in the US in 2026?
The prediction market for people building consumer brands.
Operators across consumer brands (apparel, beverage, media, retail, tech, auto) trading YESNO on outcomes that resolve from public sources. Play money, real signal.
- Operators in the room
- 266
- Active markets
- 201
- Trades placed
- 39,114
- Resolved
- 56
On the wire right now
The markets the consumer-brand press is covering most this month. Updated as stories land.
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
- 42%Yes
- 58%No
Closes in 9 monthsApparel
Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?
- 59%Yes
- 41%No
Closes in 2 monthsHome
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?
- 46%Yes
- 54%No
Closes in 2 monthsBeauty
Will The Farmer's Dog file an S-1 by July 31, 2026?
- 41%Yes
- 59%No
Closes in 2 monthsPet
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
- 51%Yes
- 49%No
Closes in 10 monthsApparel
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
- 45%Yes
- 55%No
Closes in 9 monthsApparel
Called recently
Where the room landed when each market closed. Final implied probability shown. Every resolution traces to a public source.
Will Drunk Elephant lose a major US retailer by July 15, 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 72%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beauty
Will the founder of a top-10 functional beverage brand step down in 2026?
Resolved NOFinal 64%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beverage
Will Joe & The Juice publicly file for a US IPO in 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 56%
Resolved May 18, 2026Restaurants