Biggest trades this weekLive
- @stevehale@stevehale bought YES · 30 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- @stevehale@stevehale bought NO · 25 SP · Will Apple ship a second-generation Vision Pro in 2026?
- @perceval@perceval bought YES · 20 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- @ash@ash bought YES · 10 SP · Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare Beauty
- @brian@brian bought NO · 10 SP · Will Apple ship a second-generation Vision Pro in 2026?
- @joanna@joanna bought YES · 10 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- @brian@brian bought YES · 10 SP · Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
The prediction market for people building consumer brands.
Operators across consumer brands (apparel, beverage, media, retail, tech, auto) trading YESNO on outcomes that resolve from public sources. Play money, real signal.
- Operators in the room
- 447
- Active markets
- 205
- Trades placed
- 10
- Resolved
- 56
On the wire right now
The markets the consumer-brand press is covering most this month. Updated as stories land.
Will Apple ship a second-generation Vision Pro in 2026?
- 48%Yes
- 52%No
Closes in 8 monthsTech
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
- 53%Yes
- 47%No
Closes in 6 monthsApparel
Will Shake Shack open its 600th US location by end of Q3 2026?
- 50%Yes
- 50%No
Closes in 5 monthsRestaurants
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?
- 50%Other beauty brand
- 50%No beauty IPO in 2026
- 50%Beautycounter
View all 8 outcomes →
Closes in 11 monthsBeauty
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser
- 50%Olipop
- 50%No challenger ad
- 50%Celsius
View all 6 outcomes →
Closes in 2 monthsBeverage
Will Apple launch a foldable iPhone in 2026?
- 50%Yes
- 50%No
Closes in 8 monthsTech
Called recently
Where the room landed when each market closed. Final implied probability shown. Every resolution traces to a public source.
Will Drunk Elephant lose a major US retailer by July 15, 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 50%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beauty
Will the founder of a top-10 functional beverage brand step down in 2026?
Resolved NOFinal 50%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beverage
Will Joe & The Juice publicly file for a US IPO in 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 50%
Resolved May 18, 2026Restaurants