Biggest trades this weekLive
- @remymonroe@remymonroe bought YES · 250 SP · Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?
- @junemonroe@junemonroe bought YES · 250 SP · Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item Beauty
- @grayortiz@grayortiz bought NO · 250 SP · Liquid Death IPO timing: Q4 2026
- @addisonsantos@addisonsantos bought NO · 250 SP · Will Ghia launch into Walmart by EOY 2026?
- @kairivera@kairivera bought YES · 250 SP · Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
- @emersonchen@emersonchen bought NO · 250 SP · Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
- @addisonsantos@addisonsantos bought YES · 250 SP · Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare Beauty
The prediction market for people building consumer brands.
Operators across consumer brands (apparel, beverage, media, retail, tech, auto) trading YESNO on outcomes that resolve from public sources. Play money, real signal.
- Operators in the room
- 267
- Active markets
- 214
- Trades placed
- 30,851
- Resolved
- 56
On the wire right now
The markets the consumer-brand press is covering most this month. Updated as stories land.
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
- Yes49%
- No51%
Closes in 9 monthsApparel
Will Expo West 2027 have more than 200 functional beverage exhibitors?
- Yes59%
- No41%
Closes in 8 monthsBeverage
Will Hyundai-Kia outsell GM in any US monthly sales report in 2026?
- Yes51%
- No49%
Closes in 9 monthsAuto
Will Polestar file for bankruptcy or be delisted in 2026?
- Yes61%
- No39%
Closes in 7 monthsAuto
Will Whoop announce a new hardware generation in 2026?
- Yes49%
- No51%
Closes in 7 monthsTech
Called recently
Where the room landed when each market closed. Final implied probability shown. Every resolution traces to a public source.
Will Drunk Elephant lose a major US retailer by July 15, 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 72%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beauty
Will the founder of a top-10 functional beverage brand step down in 2026?
Resolved NOFinal 64%
Resolved May 18, 2026Beverage
Will Joe & The Juice publicly file for a US IPO in 2026?
Resolved YESFinal 56%
Resolved May 18, 2026Restaurants