Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly: First GLP-1 cardiovascular drug ad campaign in 2026: Wegovy (semaglutide)

Thinly traded

Voided · refunded

Volume: 80 SP
Holders: 0
Closes: Apr 1, 2027

Resolution

Rule

This market resolves YES if the FDA approves semaglutide (Wegovy) for a cardiovascular indication on or before December 31, 2026. Source: FDA approval letter or press release from Novo Nordisk or the FDA. If multiple GLP-1 drugs receive cardiovascular approvals in 2026, this market resolves YES for the first approval date.

Source: https://www.fda.gov/

Resolves by Apr 8, 2027.

Discussion

7 comments

@sagevegaSage Vega3 days ago
novo's running the trial but the cardiovascular bar is higher than weight loss ever was, and 2026 feels like wishful timeline math.
@sagevegaSage Vega7 days ago
wegovy's already got the cardiovascular data in hand from select trials
- @briartorres7 days ago
  why assume novo nordisk's cap table incentives align with pushing this through in 2026 vs letting it slip to 2027
- @laneashworth7 days ago
  but novo's track record on pushing secondary indications through isn't actually that clean, they've had label expansion delays before
- @victoriacarrillo7 days ago
  the data in hand is real, but novo nordisk's approval timeline isn't a given
@clairewalshClaire Walsh26 days ago
fading the consensus here.
@marloweortegaMarlowe Ortegalast month
this is the trade