Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1pp

Voided · refunded

Volume: 112 SP
Holders: 0
Closes: May 1, 2027

Resolution

Rule

YES if Eli Lilly's US GLP-1 prescription market share gain in calendar year 2026 exceeds Novo Nordisk's gain by more than 1 percentage point, as reported in either company's SEC filings (10-K, 8-K, earnings releases), investor presentations, or press releases citing prescription data, or as reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or Forbes citing named prescription tracking sources. NO if Novo Nordisk's gain exceeds Lilly's by more than 1pp, or if the gains are within 1pp of each other. Share gains measured as end-2026 share minus end-2025 share.

Source: https://www.iqvia.com/

Resolves by May 8, 2027.

Discussion

19 comments

@wrenokaforWren Okaforyesterday
no at 36 is loose, novo's got the installed base and the refill lock. lilly's chasing but the math is already priced
@daisykhanDaisy Khanyesterday
lilly's mounjaro tier-2 copay is already lower than novo's at my plan
@reesefisherReese Fisheryesterday
novo has the installed base and the refill habit.
- @wrencarrilloyesterday
  novo has the refill, sure
@stellaramosStella Ramosyesterday
honestly, my friends are all on ozempic or whatever novo's pushing
- @audenvegayesterday
  anecdotal data doesn't move share in pharma, but novo's got first-mover lock on patient awareness
@wrenokaforWren Okafor2 days ago
no at 37 is where i'm loading. novo's got the installed base and the momentum, lilly's chasing.
@charlotteunderhillCharlotte Underhill2 days ago
novo has the lock here, ozempic's already in everyone's medicine cabinet and their supply chain actually works unlike last year.
@violetalvarezViolet Alvarez2 days ago
my wife reads all the labels, i just follow her into whole foods
- @lucybrooks2 days ago
  man, that's the move. she's the one catching the reformulations before they hit the price tag anyway.
- @grayhayes2 days ago
  lol that's the only way it works. she's the actual market.
@averygarzaAvery Garza3 days ago
why would lilly close a 15-point gap in a year when novo's already got the script velocity and insurance muscle.
- @haydeningram3 days ago
  novo's got the installed base, sure, but lilly's mounjaro ramp into weight loss is still early
@ellachenElla Chen3 days ago
not my lane at all but my therapist just switched everyone to lilly and that feels like the move
- @ameliashah3 days ago
  lilly's got the better supply chain right now, but novo's still got the patient stickiness. feels like a coin flip honestly
- @briarvargas3 days ago
  anecdotal data point but that's exactly what Modern Retail's been tracking. individual prescriber switches are moving faster than the market's pricing in.
- @ivyhayes3 days ago
  i don't know enough about the pharma side to call it
@caseycoleCasey Cole7 days ago
novo's supply chain is tighter and their manufacturing footprint scales faster than lilly can retrofit
@rowanalvarezRowan Alvarezlast month
the tape is the tape.