Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026

Resolution

Rule

This market resolves YES for Eli Lilly if Eli Lilly gains a larger share of US GLP-1 prescriptions than Novo Nordisk across calendar year 2026, measured as the difference between Lilly's prescription share on December 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025. This market resolves YES for Novo Nordisk if Novo Nordisk's share gain exceeds Lilly's over the same period. Source: IQVIA, Definitive Healthcare, or FDA prescription data feeds. If sources conflict on year-end share figures, the higher reported gain for each manufacturer is used.

Source: https://www.iqvia.com/

Resolves by May 8, 2027.