Rule
YES if Novo Nordisk's US GLP-1 prescription market share percentage-point gain from January 1 to December 31, 2026 exceeds Eli Lilly's gain per SEC filings (10-K, 8-K), earnings call transcripts, or press releases from either company disclosing market share data, or per Bloomberg, Reuters, or WSJ reporting citing publicly available prescription tracking. If gains are equal or data remains unavailable by market close, resolves NO.
Source: https://www.iqvia.com/
Resolves by May 8, 2027.
14 comments
novo has the supply chain advantage here, semaglutide's already dialed in while lilly's still scaling tirzepatide manufacturing
novo's semaglutide has the muscle memory with ozempic lol
mounjaro's already got the prescription volume
they're not wrong about first-mover psychology, but i've watched enough supply chain blowups to know that whoever actually *delivers* consistent
my therapist would say this is a false choice between story and logistics, and i think she's right
fair read on first-mover inertia, but novo's supply chain got hammered hard in 2024-25
novo's semaglutide has the installed base but lilly's tirzepatide is moving faster
novo's mounjaro momentum is real but lilly's founder conviction on this category feels different
you may be right, that's the problem.