@lilyramos

Lily RamosJoined May 18, 2026

fractional CFO at an agency covering sexual wellness. Boulder · CrossFit regular.

Calibration

0.26

Top 60% of 68

Win rate

100%

2W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+38 SP

Calibration

2 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
6 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirerYES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirerYES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Will Tesla produce 100K Cybertrucks by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 40%9 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezYES
5 SP @ 100%16 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: NestleYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: UnileverYES
60 SP @ 100%21 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezYES
40 SP @ 50%21 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirerNO
41 SP @ 39%21 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirerNO
43 SP @ 29%22 hours ago
Which sleep/wellness brand gets acquired by Big Tech first in 2026?: No qualifying acquisitionNO
40 SP @ 50%23 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: P&GYES
40 SP @ 60%23 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCoNO
40 SP @ 46%23 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: UnileverNO
40 SP @ 46%yesterday
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBevNO
40 SP @ 39%yesterday
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: UnileverNO
40 SP @ 46%yesterday
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5BNO
8 SP @ 45%yesterday
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: CostcoNO
8 SP @ 36%yesterday
Top-selling energy drink under 25 in 2026: C4NO
8 SP @ 46%yesterday
Will Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses cross 2M cumulative units sold in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 53%yesterday
Will a new sober-curious functional beverage brand reach $10M ARR by EOY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 65%yesterday
Will the US RTD cocktail category decline in dollar volume in 2026?YES
16 SP @ 50%yesterday
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: Earth EchoNO
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: CalibrateYES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Will Hershey announce an acquisition >$200M by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Most-acquired pet food brand of 2026: Wild EarthYES
9 SP @ 29%2 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): Athletic BrewingNO
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Biggest CPG fundraise of 2026 (band): $100M to $200MYES
8 SP @ 68%2 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
DTC home fragrance IPO 2026: SnifNO
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth band: 6% – 8%YES
10 SP @ 82%2 days ago
Will Dutch Bros operate 1,000+ shops by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will TJX operate 200+ HomeSense US locations by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Largest CPG fundraise announced between May 16 and July 15, 2026 (deal-size band): Under $25MNO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Cereal brand acquired by General Mills in 2026: Cascadian Farm (existing)YES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Best-selling frozen pizza brand 2026: Amy'sNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: GT's Living FoodsNO
8 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Will Rivian begin delivering the R2 to customers in 2026?YES
30 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Expo West 2026 Best New Product winner: Bobo'sYES
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Ford F-150 Lightning outsell Tesla Cybertruck in US calendar 2026?YES
54 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Will Ford F-150 Lightning outsell Tesla Cybertruck in US calendar 2026?YES
46 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): No mega-IPONO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: BeautycounterNO
8 SP @ 58%3 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 62%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: RitualYES
8 SP @ 64%3 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Bulk SupplementsNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Pet wearable to hit 1M subscribers 2026: None discloseNO
8 SP @ 62%3 days ago
Most-funded vertical farming startup 2026: BoweryYES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Fastest-growing frozen food brand 2026: Daring FoodsNO
8 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Chewy vs Petco market cap winner EOY 2026: Within 5% of each otherYES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Fastest-growing frozen food brand 2026: Vegan Rob'sYES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Mark Ramadan (Sir Kensington's)YES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Expanded permissionsNO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
Will PepsiCo extend its distribution agreement with Celsius beyond its current term?NO
7 SP @ 58%3 days ago
Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?YES
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?NO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Catalina CrunchYES
6 SP @ 68%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: REM BeautyYES
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Will Erewhon open a 12th LA-area store by EOY 2026?NO
31 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Klean AthleteYES
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Chewy 2026 corporate event: Acquired by AmazonNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Heineken 0.0 grow US case volume 30%+ YoY in 2026?NO
29 SP @ 50%4 days ago
First DTC pet pharmacy to scale in 2026: None hit $100MNO
11 SP @ 15%4 days ago
Expo West 2026 Best New Product winner: Once Upon a FarmNO
8 SP @ 32%4 days ago
First DTC pet pharmacy to scale in 2026: VetsterYES
9 SP @ 77%4 days ago
Eight Sleep's next funding milestone: IPO filingNO
14 SP @ 82%4 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: Lagunitas IPA NANO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Energy drinkYES
8 SP @ 65%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 35%4 days ago
Will McDonald's shut down or fundamentally restructure CosMc's in 2026?NO
38 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?YES
46 SP @ 38%4 days ago
Will Heineken 0.0 grow US case volume 30%+ YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will Magic Spoon announce a new national retailer by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%4 days ago
Will Lucid Group file for bankruptcy or be acquired in 2026?NO
20 SP @ 57%4 days ago
GLP-1 telehealth that consolidates first in 2026: FoundNO
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Most-funded vertical farming startup 2026: AeroFarmsNO
8 SP @ 32%4 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: No beauty IPONO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: Kraft HeinzNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: Four SigmaticNO
10 SP @ 75%4 days ago
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 44%4 days ago
First sustainable cleaning brand to $500M revenue: Method (SC Johnson)NO
8 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionNO
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Top-selling sleep aid supplement 2026: OtherNO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Will Aldi open 250+ new US stores in calendar 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Status quo (compounding continues)NO
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Yerba mate brand to break $50M in 2026: No brand hits $50MNO
9 SP @ 30%4 days ago
Most-acquired pet food brand of 2026: Sundays for DogsNO
8 SP @ 39%4 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: FoundYES
9 SP @ 77%4 days ago
Biggest CPG SPAC of 2026: Athletic Brewing SPACYES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 34%4 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Casper OriginalNO
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Will Magic Spoon hit 10K Walmart doors by Q4 2026?YES
9 SP @ 75%4 days ago
First snack brand to break $500M retail in 2026: Belgian BoysYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago