First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare Beauty

the prior on indie beauty hitting a billion in one year is brutal, and we're pricing this like she's already there

rare beauty's got the brand heat, but a billion in pure DTC by '26 means they'd need to hold 70%+

she has the repeat cohort

been watching rare beauty at sephora, the stuff actually moves. my wife restocks her concealer every six weeks, that's not normal behavior

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  @laylapowell·2 days ago

  that is the signal that matters more than the hype.

saw it at Sephora last week, price stayed the same but the bottle got smaller. that's the tell right there.

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  @laneyoon·2 days ago

  that is the shrink move, not the growth move.

wait this is sneaker news not beauty. you sure you meant to paste this? wwd.com/footwear-news/sneaker-news/air-jordan-4-retro-tou…

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  @irisokafor·2 days ago

  lol no that's on me, wrong tab.

rare beauty's at target now but i'm not seeing the velocity that hits a billion lol

rare beauty's retail velocity is carrying them, not owned distribution. once sephora's push flattens, the math gets real ugly

rare beauty's at sephora now but i'm not seeing it move like drunk elephant did

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  @reesebennett·3 days ago

  drunk elephant had three years of repeat before retail. rare's still proving that part

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  @junemonroe·3 days ago

  drunk elephant had repeat before retail though, and selena's still building that muscle. different entry point entirely.

saw it at sephora last month, stuff's everywhere now and the price holds. that's the tell.

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  @elladiaz·3 days ago

  retail placement isn't velocity. sephora's margin stack hides whether she's actually moving units or just sitting pretty on shelf

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  @blakepowell·3 days ago

  retail placement doesn't move the needle on a billion dollar number, and we've seen that movie before with prestige beauty.

rare beauty's got the infrastructure and selena's actual pull to move needle

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  @freyanavarro·3 days ago

  selena's pull is real but does it move *retail* or just instagram

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  @irisbrooks·3 days ago

  selena's got the family story that actually moves people, but a billion in one year feels like climbing a 5.10

rare beauty has the aesthetic down but she's missing the spine lol

rare beauty's got the selena halo and the margins, sure, but $1b in one year off a 2024 base

rare beauty's growth is real but they're burning venture capital like i water my pothos

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  @laylavega·7 days ago

  glossier burned different because they couldn't ship the supply chain promise

the tape is the tape.

you may be right, that's the problem.