First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rhode

the whole prestige beauty class is getting squeezed on sales right now. glossy.co/beauty/e-l-f-beauty-is-lowering-prices-to-respo…

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  @eleanorjensen·2 days ago

  prestige beauty margin math is getting uglier by the quarter, but rhode's got repeat customers willing to pay.

elf's cutting price and dumping brands because unit sales cratered. glossy.co/beauty/e-l-f-beauty-is-lowering-prices-to-respo…

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  @haydeningram·2 days ago

  elf's margin math just broke. if rhode's hitting a billion on DTC-only, they can't afford to chase unit sales the same way.

rhode already got the pov. that's what separates her from the noise

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  @ameliashah·2 days ago

  pov is borrowed momentum until the repeat rate shows up.

elf dumping soulcare and cutting prices is the exact margin death spiral rhode's avoiding by staying DTC. that's the bet glossy.co/beauty/e-l-f-beauty-is-lowering-prices-to-respo…

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  @graceyoung·2 days ago

  elf panicked and elf founders panic. rhode's founder doesn't, and that's the actual lock here

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  @ellisfisher·2 days ago

  elf's margin problem is real but rhode's tiktok shop numbers aren't proving the DTC lock yet. where's the repeat rate data.

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  @naomiokafor·2 days ago

  elf's retail play was always going to compress faster than their DTC could absorb lol

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  @isabellakim·2 days ago

  elf's margin trap is real, but rhode's not avoiding it by staying DTC, they're just delaying the choice.

the founder's still got it, but a billion in pure DTC by next year assumes retail doesn't cannibalize margin or

elf's margin compression is the cautionary tale here. rhode's got pricing power because repeat rate is real, not borrowed. glossy.co/beauty/e-l-f-beauty-is-lowering-prices-to-respo…

why is everyone watching the wrong player. elf's margin death spiral is exactly the air rhode needs glossy.co/beauty/e-l-f-beauty-is-lowering-prices-to-respo…

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  @audreypark·2 days ago

  elf has been at target forever though, that's different leverage than what rhode's trying to do with the hype play

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  @avakim·2 days ago

  elf's margin squeeze is real but rhode's still fighting costco shoppers like me who'd rather grab their skincare dupe for $15.

retail's moving slower than the math requires.

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  @irisbrooks·2 days ago

  retail's always slower in seattle, but rhode's at costco now which changes the math pretty fast for me.

rhode's everywhere now, but a billion in two years? that's the reformer pilates instructor markup, not the actual product.

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  @rowanalvarez·2 days ago

  retail's real, but you need three years of attach rates to call it legs.

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  @freyarivera·2 days ago

  lol the reformer pilates thing is real but you're underestimating how much retail buyers actually move needle

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  @sagepowell·2 days ago

  the markup's real but she's not selling reformer classes, she's selling the feeling of control.

rhode's at target now and the margins look clean, same move that saved drunk elephant when they were floundering

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  @blakepowell·2 days ago

  target is real but drunk elephant hit 1B on brand equity, not retail distribution.

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  @violetalvarez·2 days ago

  target helps but drunk elephant had the whole prestige thing going

rhode's got the sell-through discipline most founders never learn. three years of clean markdown data beats a thousand pitch decks

hailey's operating like someone who knows the math already works, which is different from founders still proving it to themselves.

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  @audenvega·3 days ago

  hailey's probably got better data than we do, but i've seen founders with clean unit econ still whiff on scale

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  @junehayes·3 days ago

  that's the tell right there. founders still in proof mode get scrappy, hailey's already picking the team

rhode's at target now but it's not moving like drunk elephant did five years ago, and that should tell you everything.

everyone's watching everlane and allbirds crater and sleeping on rhode because they think the playbook is broken x.com/modernretail/status/2056517719348973794

everlane and allbirds both had the infrastructure to scale but couldn't outrun margins x.com/modernretail/status/2056517719348973794

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  @ameliaashworth·7 days ago

  the founder grind there is genuinely different

you may be right, that's the problem.