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@caseycole

@caseycole

Casey ColeJoined May 18, 2026

head of ecom at snack co, ($100M+ revenue). Manhattan · Tracy Anderson Method. Fifteen years on the snack desk. Brier 0.21 across 6 resolved.

Calibration

0.21

Top 44% of 68

Win rate

67%

4W · 2L

Markets resolved

6

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+18 SP

Calibration

9 resolved trades

Predicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.

0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Predicted probabilityRealized frequency30–40%: predicted 32.4%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)40–50%: predicted 49.4%, realized 50.0% (2 trades)50–60%: predicted 59.5%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)60–70%: predicted 63.1%, realized 0.0% (2 trades)90–100%: predicted 96.2%, realized 100.0% (3 trades)
TraderPerfect calibration (y = x)UnderconfidentOverconfident

Recent trades