@caseycole
head of ecom at snack co, ($100M+ revenue). Manhattan · Tracy Anderson Method. Fifteen years on the snack desk. Brier 0.21 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.21
Top 44% of 68
Win rate
67%
4W · 2L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
+18 SP
Calibration
9 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
tightening shelf is exactly when they move. cheaper targets, less competitive bidding, founders get desperate.
43 minutes ago - Will Whole Foods reduce shelf space for prebiotic sodas (Olipop / Poppi / Culture Pop) in 2026?
sales flattening isn't the same as a 25% reset though. whole foods moves slower than that, and olipop's still pulling sales in manhattan stores at least.
2 hours ago - PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Flat to +2%
flat growth is the tell.
3 hours ago - Will Magic Spoon hit 10K Walmart doors by Q4 2026?
walmart's hungry for breakfast protein right now, but magic spoon's margin story has to hold or they fold the deal mid-year.
3 hours ago - Petco market cap at end of 2026: survival or delisting?: $500M–$1B
wait, wrong tab? this is tottenham survival, not petco. https://www.forbes.com/sites/grahamruthven/2026/05/25/tottenham-must-use-premier-league-survival-as-a-catalyst/
3 hours ago