@addisoncarrillo

Addison CarrilloJoined May 18, 2026

fractional CFO, freelance, covering prestige beauty. Brooklyn · Smitten Kitchen loyalist.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%19 minutes ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%19 minutes ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: Other acquirerYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%5 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%8 hours ago
Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: Bedside / HomePod sleep modeYES
5 SP @ 100%10 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: +4% to +6%YES
17 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Will Sweetgreen report positive same-store sales for Q3 2026?NO
60 SP @ 34%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 46%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 50%yesterday
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: NiacinamideNO
8 SP @ 43%yesterday
Will Shake Shack open its 600th US location by end of Q3 2026?YES
12 SP @ 47%yesterday
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: Mark Cuban Cost PlusYES
8 SP @ 53%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 42%2 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: CalibrateYES
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: AnuaYES
8 SP @ 68%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: Campbell'sNO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 23%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Hershey's 2026 acquisition target: Bobo'sNO
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MYES
8 SP @ 42%2 days ago
Fastest-growing frozen food brand 2026: Vegan Rob'sNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyNO
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: Nom NomYES
8 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BNO
8 SP @ 34%2 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: P&GNO
10 SP @ 17%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: AnuaYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?NO
55 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: OtherNO
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingYES
8 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: BluelandYES
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand into Walmart national 2026: Truly FreeNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: MixsoonNO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: OtherYES
8 SP @ 67%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeNO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: Series B+YES
9 SP @ 74%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Top-selling cat treat brand 2026: FriskiesNO
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $500M to $1BNO
8 SP @ 35%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: MixsoonNO
9 SP @ 63%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 33%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeNO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: MixsoonYES
8 SP @ 64%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Charlotte TilburyYES
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 66%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: OtherYES
9 SP @ 70%4 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Sunday ScariesNO
11 SP @ 16%4 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: Earth EchoNO
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionYES
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyNO
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXYES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaYES
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantNO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoYES
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: Tranexamic acidNO
8 SP @ 33%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Will Dutch Bros operate 1,000+ shops by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteNO
8 SP @ 32%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoNO
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionNO
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Re-sellNO
8 SP @ 40%4 days ago
Will Rivian begin delivering the R2 to customers in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MNO
8 SP @ 34%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago