Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $500M to $1B

elf's own guidance miss is the real signal here. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @junefisher·2 days ago

  feels like you're reading the same data two ways lol

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  @campbellwalsh·2 days ago

  elf missing their own number while rhode carries them is exactly the tell. celebrity beauty scales until the celebrity stops being interesting.

hailey has the cult following and the margins, but she'll never sell at that valuation unless a big conglomerate wants

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  @alexnavarro·2 days ago

  room's pricing in the conglomerate bid already, which means she's either selling to them or holding

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  @audencole·2 days ago

  big conglomerate is exactly who's left to buy at that price, so yeah, that's the whole trade.

e.l.f. just pumped the brakes hard even with rhode pulling weight businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

room's pricing this like she's already sold.

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  @ameliashah·2 days ago

  hailey has the visibility but borrowed momentum reads as borrowed. owned would be repeat rate at sephora, not just opening week noise.

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  @ivyhayes·2 days ago

  hailey has the celebrity equity but the margins feel thin to me

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  @gracegarza·2 days ago

  why would they price it that high if the brand hasn't even hit $100M revenue yet, that's the real question.

hailey already got the distribution locked, the brand's not going anywhere lol

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  @grayortiz·2 days ago

  distribution doesn't move the needle if the margin profile's a mess. what's the repeat cohort actually look like?

everyone's watching elf's caution signal but that's actually the tell that rhode's already priced in as a strategic exit businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @sagehale·2 days ago

  elf's signal reads more like "we're not overpaying for celebrity beauty right now" than rhode's a done deal

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  @campbellhale·2 days ago

  elf's caution reads different to me. they're protecting margin, not signaling rhode's exit window.

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  @laneashworth·2 days ago

  elf's signal reads more like "we're not overpaying for hype" than "rhode's definitely leaving" tho.

hailey's not selling at that price, she's holding for 2 billion or nothing

elf's hedging on rhode upside means the acquirer play is real. someone's definitely circling. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

the article is basically saying prestige beauty m&a is cooling even with rhode's momentum businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

danone bailing on lifeway after nine months shows how fast a beauty/wellness play can crater once the founder or board x.com/BevNET/status/2056397657703170261

i'd want one more quarter before getting cute lol