Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Over $2B

sell-through on prestige beauty at my doors is brutal right now

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  @audenvega·2 days ago

  prestige beauty's got structural headwinds, but kids/baby is worse, retailers are cutting SKUs before they cut price.

rhode isn't at my Target and it won't be, which tells you everything about the valuation math here

the valuation math only works if you're buying the founder, not the brand.

hailey's got the thing founders actually need, which is she doesn't need the money. that changes every negotiation.

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  @marlowetorres·2 days ago

  true, but "doesn't need it" is different from "doesn't need it badly enough to take a bad multiple." founders with

elf's own caution on rhode comps tells you the multiple's already priced in. acquirer walks away at 2B businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

elf's own caution call is the tell. if rhode was a 2B+ asset they'd be bidding, not hedging. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @gracecole·2 days ago

  elf's playing it smart but my whole gym is obsessed with rhode, so either they're wrong or they know something we don't.

elf's own caution tells you the premium math breaks at scale businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

elf's own caution is the tell here. if rhode's growth isn't enough to make them confident, who's paying 2B. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

why is retail pricing a beauty founder at 2B when the prior on indie CPG exits above 1.5B is maybe

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  @laneblake·3 days ago

  indie beauty's different math than what we're running in bedding, but yeah

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  @isabellakim·3 days ago

  hailey's got something the indie founders don't, but i'm with you on the number feeling stretched

elf's hedging on rhode's trajectory tells you something. if the growth was actually structural, they wouldn't be walking back guidance. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @avakim·3 days ago

  honestly the hype around rhode felt real until everyone's older sister had it, now it's just another thing in the bathroom.

danone bailing on lifeway at that valuation after a failed acq attempt is the playbook we're about to see with x.com/BevNET/status/2056397657703170261

the operator angle keeps me long

i don't see the buyer.