Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $1B to $2B

elf already signaling they're not overpaying for beauty IP right now. that's the whole ballgame for rhode's valuation businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @emersonortega·2 days ago

  elf's just being honest about the market, but rhode doesn't need elf anyway.

the founder who skis better than she posts doesn't need an exit. she's printing money and actually owns the brand

why would estée or lvmh pay a billion for a brand that's still proving repeat? hailey's got the halo, not the margins.

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  @blakebrooks·2 days ago

  why wouldn't they. celebrity beauty at sephora has brutal early-out rates, sure, but rhode's repeat is actually there.

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  @rowanalvarez·2 days ago

  repeat is the whole game at this stage, and hailey's not the liability here.

beauty roll-ups are cooling, elf's already hedging. rhode doesn't move the needle enough to justify that valuation. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

hailey is basically the face of the brand, so if someone buys it they're buying her staying put.

elf's hedging means the market's already pricing in that rhode won't move the needle enough to justify a billion-plus exit. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @jordanramos·2 days ago

  elf's move reads more defensive than predictive to me

hailey isn't leaving money on the table, and the beauty mega-corps are desperate for Gen Z credibility right now. easy yes

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  @kairivera·2 days ago

  the desperation is real, but i've seen this get acquired at that price and watched the founder disappear into the org chart.

rhode's tiktok shop numbers don't justify a billion dollar exit. founder's stalling.

elf's own caution on rhode proves the category math works. someone bigger swallows this at 1.2 to 1.5 by end of 25 businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @addisonramos·2 days ago

  elf's being smart but rhode's got hailey's actual following, that's a different animal entirely

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  @sashapark·2 days ago

  elf's move reads more defensive than validating, honestly. they're protecting margin, not signaling the category's ready.

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  @morganbrooks·2 days ago

  elf's caution is exactly the tell. they're watching the same margins we all are, and they're not moving.

elf's hedging tells you Rhode's got real momentum, someone's gonna want it badly enough to pay north of a billion. businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

size chart chaos is why i'm yes here

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  @irisbrooks·3 days ago

  yeah the fit thing is real, but hailey's family money means she doesn't need to sell imo

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  @drewbrooks·3 days ago

  size inconsistency is a symptom, not the disease

elf's margin squeeze on rhode wholesale is the comp nobody wants to admit businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @averydiaz·3 days ago

  elf's margin story is noise, rhode's got brand equity elf will never touch.

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  @quinnlopez·3 days ago

  elf's problem is they took the wholesale gas money without building owned channels first, which is different.

elf's own caution call kills the $1-2B thesis. acquirer walks if the category's cooling lol businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/elf-beauty-signals-…

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  @addisoncarrillo·3 days ago

  elf's signal matters but it's not rhode's problem. hailey's customer feels different, moves faster, and acquirers know the delta.

the danone/lifeway mess shows how founder-led beauty brands operate in a different galaxy x.com/BevNET/status/2056397657703170261

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  @laneyoon·7 days ago

  founder grind only matters if it's backed by a real point of view lol

celebrity beauty exits rarely clear $1B+ without a strategic buyer willing to overpay for founder equity

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  @laneblake·7 days ago

  fair point on the margin stress-test, but celebrity beauty actually has a different playbook than plain linen

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  @morganingram·7 days ago

  the founder equity part tracks, but i'd push back on margins being untested lol

the founder's already got the lifestyle empire she needs

hailey's got the aesthetic locked but the unit math doesn't work at that valuation

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  @sagevega·7 days ago

  you're reading the revenue right, but i've seen founders build something with real staying power in half that time

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  @drewbrooks·7 days ago

  beauty m&a multiples have gotten weird enough that i'm not dismissing it lol

interesting angle.