@jordanhale

Jordan HaleJoined May 18, 2026

head of innovation at kids/baby co, (pre-launch). Miami · The Cut subscriber. Ten years on the kids & baby desk.

Calibration

0.16

Top 29% of 68

Win rate

100%

2W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+24 SP

Calibration

2 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: P&GYES
7 SP @ 100%40 minutes ago
Will Cava operate 100+ units outside the DMV region by EOY 2026?YES
29 SP @ 63%1 hour ago
Which US retailer launches first private-label GLP-1 drug program in 2026?: None of the aboveYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: UnileverYES
9 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: P&GYES
6 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Will Wegmans announce a West Coast store opening in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 42%3 hours ago
Will Samsung announce a Galaxy Ring 2 (second-generation) in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 51%13 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBevYES
5 SP @ 100%14 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: NestleYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCoYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: NestleYES
40 SP @ 52%23 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirerNO
30 SP @ 37%24 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCoYES
40 SP @ 48%24 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
40 SP @ 57%24 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: NestleYES
41 SP @ 62%yesterday
Expo West 2026 Best New Product winner: Catalina CrunchNO
8 SP @ 57%yesterday
Most-funded vertical farming startup 2026: AeroFarmsNO
8 SP @ 41%yesterday
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCoNO
8 SP @ 53%yesterday
Will the US federal EV tax credit ($7,500) survive intact through EOY 2026?YES
35 SP @ 59%yesterday
Will Shake Shack open its 600th US location by end of Q3 2026?NO
16 SP @ 47%yesterday
Will a credible Sweetgreen acquisition rumor surface in 2026?YES
23 SP @ 56%yesterday
Biggest CPG fundraise of 2026 (band): $500M+YES
9 SP @ 73%yesterday
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: RoYES
6 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Will Garmin announce a Fenix 9 in 2026?NO
6 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?YES
22 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Best-selling frozen pizza brand 2026: DiGiornoYES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
Will Disney+ raise its US ad-free price again in 2026?NO
31 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Cereal brand acquired by General Mills in 2026: Cascadian Farm (existing)YES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Will Magic Spoon announce a new national retailer by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?YES
6 SP @ 54%2 days ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: No challenger adNO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Pet wearable to hit 1M subscribers 2026: None discloseNO
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
33 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1ppNO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
36 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Best-selling frozen pizza brand 2026: California Pizza KitchenNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Meta launch the Quest 4 headset in 2026?YES
57 SP @ 63%2 days ago
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: CVSYES
8 SP @ 65%2 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: Lagunitas IPA NAYES
7 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Most-funded vertical farming startup 2026: Eden GreenYES
9 SP @ 72%2 days ago
GLP-1 telehealth that consolidates first in 2026: HimsNO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Biggest CPG SPAC of 2026: Olipop SPAC mergerYES
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingYES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Will Nothing officially launch a phone in the US in 2026?YES
40 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Will the US federal EV tax credit ($7,500) survive intact through EOY 2026?YES
12 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: Care/ofNO
9 SP @ 30%2 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: Culture PopNO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: P&GYES
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: KanibiYES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Soda alternativeNO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: Hims Weight LossYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: Health-AdeNO
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Top-selling longevity supplement of 2026: ResveratrolNO
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Will TJX operate 200+ HomeSense US locations by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Olipop be acquired by a strategic before EOY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: Kellogg'sNO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Hershey Q2 2026 net sales band: $2.8B – $3.0BNO
8 SP @ 31%3 days ago
Will Whoop announce a new hardware generation in 2026?YES
19 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?YES
8 SP @ 64%3 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: No brand disclosesNO
11 SP @ 78%3 days ago
Will Chipotle announce its first restaurant outside North America + Europe in 2026?YES
32 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Will Whole Foods reduce shelf space for prebiotic sodas (Olipop / Poppi / Culture Pop) in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 65%3 days ago
Will a credible Sweetgreen acquisition rumor surface in 2026?YES
9 SP @ 44%3 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: CymbiotikaYES
11 SP @ 86%3 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Expanded permissionsYES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Athletic Brewing file for an IPO in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 32%3 days ago
Will a US streaming service win an NBA, NFL, or MLB exclusive package in 2026?NO
44 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Hims's biggest 2026 acquisition: TalkspaceYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Ghia raise a Series B by end of Q3 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Will Hershey announce an acquisition >$200M by July 31, 2026?NO
14 SP @ 83%3 days ago
Fastest-growing frozen food brand 2026: Strong RootsNO
9 SP @ 28%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Eli Lilly (tirzepatide)YES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: PepsiCoNO
9 SP @ 70%4 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Will Magic Spoon be acquired by a strategic in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
Will Samsung announce a Galaxy Ring 2 (second-generation) in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Biggest CPG fundraise of 2026 (band): $100M to $200MYES
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Eight Sleep's next funding milestone: Series FYES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BNO
8 SP @ 39%4 days ago
First DTC pet pharmacy to scale in 2026: VetsterYES
10 SP @ 82%4 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: OtherNO
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: The Farmer's DogNO
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: No material eventYES
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBevYES
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will Meta launch the Quest 4 headset in 2026?NO
41 SP @ 68%4 days ago
Big-tech sleep acquisition 2026: WhoopYES
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Will Starbucks close 100+ underperforming US stores in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Coca-ColaYES
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Will a top-10 wine importer (Deutsch, E&J Gallo, Constellation) announce a functional beverage brand bet in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Hot sauce brand to break $100M revenue in 2026: YellowbirdYES
9 SP @ 35%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeNO
8 SP @ 33%4 days ago