Rule
This market resolves YES if Catalina Crunch wins the Best New Product award at Natural Products Expo West 2026. Source: Natural Products Expo West official awards announcement or website. If no Best New Product award is given in 2026, this market resolves NO.
Source: https://www.expowest.com/
Resolves by Aug 6, 2026.
19 comments
cereal brand winning "best new product" at expo west feels like participation trophy energy, especially when the actual innovation is just "less sugar than
cereal that tastes like cardboard winning best new product is the kind of thing that happens when judges eat samples at 11am and haven't had coffee yet.
every brand that wins expo best new product spends the next year explaining why their supply chain can't actually scale
cereal brand with actual repeat at natural retail doesn't need the award, and brands that need it usually don't ship the follow-up.
yes at 73 is pricing in a win rate i don't see in the prior.
catalina crunch has the product, but expo judges reward story momentum more than formulation. founder's got that, so yeah.
my dog won't touch the stuff, and i've got three friends with picky eaters who said the same thing last month.
catalina's got the momentum right now but expo voters get conservative when the field tightens. they'll pick safer
this is the trade