@haydenblake

Hayden BlakeJoined May 18, 2026

category buyer at a retailer covering functional beverage. Manhattan · philosophy grad school dropout. Twenty-five years on the bev desk.

Calibration

0.13

Top 15% of 68

Win rate

0W · 2L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

-24 SP

Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.

Calibration

1 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzerYES
5 SP @ 100%55 minutes ago
Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?YES
8 SP @ 56%2 hours ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: Q3 2026YES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Best Day BrewingYES
5 SP @ 71%6 hours ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzerYES
5 SP @ 70%6 hours ago
Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Best Day BrewingYES
5 SP @ 100%7 hours ago
Will Athletic Brewing close a Series D by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 59%10 hours ago
Will Ghia raise a Series B by end of Q3 2026?YES
8 SP @ 41%10 hours ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 38%12 hours ago
Will Expo West 2027 have more than 200 functional beverage exhibitors?NO
8 SP @ 60%13 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%16 hours ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: PepsiCoYES
5 SP @ 100%16 hours ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: NestleYES
60 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: No IPO filing in 2026YES
8 SP @ 61%21 hours ago
Will Whole Foods launch a Whole Foods-branded paid loyalty tier in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 57%21 hours ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: Anheuser-Busch InBevYES
40 SP @ 54%22 hours ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: CelsiusYES
8 SP @ 39%23 hours ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: Keurig Dr PepperYES
40 SP @ 50%23 hours ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: Liquid DeathYES
8 SP @ 56%23 hours ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: CelsiusNO
8 SP @ 36%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
8 SP @ 66%yesterday
Will a top-10 wine importer (Deutsch, E&J Gallo, Constellation) announce a functional beverage brand bet in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%yesterday
First GLP-1 subscription brand to publicly report 1M active subscribers in 2026: RoYES
36 SP @ 50%yesterday
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Chobani OatNO
9 SP @ 23%yesterday
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): NestleNO
9 SP @ 22%yesterday
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: CelsiusYES
9 SP @ 37%yesterday
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%yesterday
Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?YES
8 SP @ 65%yesterday
Yerba mate brand to break $50M in 2026: GuayakiYES
8 SP @ 47%yesterday
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzerNO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: No major acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: Under $500MNO
8 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Soda alternativeYES
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Biggest CPG fundraise of 2026 (band): Under $50MYES
8 SP @ 67%2 days ago
Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth band: 8% – 10%NO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: Coca-ColaNO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: SilkYES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: OlipopYES
8 SP @ 68%2 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Tuft & Needle MintNO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Magic Spoon be acquired by a strategic in 2026?NO
9 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Will the US federal EV tax credit ($7,500) survive intact through EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 62%2 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Califia FarmsYES
9 SP @ 70%2 days ago
Will Liquid Death launch a non-water beverage in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Will Expo West 2027 have more than 200 functional beverage exhibitors?NO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Liquid Death's next category expansion by July 31, 2026: No new categoryYES
9 SP @ 74%2 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Soda alternativeNO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Most-funded vertical farming startup 2026: PlentyYES
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Sweetgreen report positive same-store sales for Q3 2026?NO
60 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Will Poppi announce an acquisition (any party) in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelYES
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?YES
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Will Samsung announce a Galaxy Ring 2 (second-generation) in 2026?NO
24 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: Heineken 0.0 (already big)YES
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Chobani OatNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Top-selling energy drink under 25 in 2026: C4NO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: Heineken 0.0 (already big)YES
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: Q4 2026NO
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: FoundYES
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Ghia launch into Walmart by EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: No major acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: Over $2BYES
9 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: AG1YES
9 SP @ 71%3 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Keurig Dr PepperYES
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzerNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Rivian begin delivering the R2 to customers in 2026?YES
48 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth band: Over 10%YES
8 SP @ 67%3 days ago
Yerba mate brand to break $50M in 2026: GuayakiYES
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: Liquid DeathNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
Will The Farmer's Dog file an S-1 by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 65%4 days ago
Most-acquired non-alc beer brand in 2026: No major acquisitionYES
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Chobani OatNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Poppi announce an acquisition (any party) in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: Q1 2026YES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: GT's Living FoodsYES
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: GT's Living FoodsNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Yerba mate brand to break $50M in 2026: GuayakiNO
9 SP @ 65%4 days ago
Will KeHE add 20+ new functional beverage SKUs to its natural set in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Biggest snack IPO of 2026: No major IPONO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelNO
8 SP @ 41%4 days ago
Hot sauce brand to break $100M revenue in 2026: YellowbirdYES
10 SP @ 29%4 days ago
Will PepsiCo extend its distribution agreement with Celsius beyond its current term?YES
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Will Sonos report a positive YoY revenue quarter in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: Health-AdeNO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Coffee lineNO
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: SilkNO
8 SP @ 38%4 days ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: No IPO filing in 2026NO
8 SP @ 32%4 days ago
Top-selling energy drink under 25 in 2026: MonsterNO
8 SP @ 32%4 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): NestleNO
9 SP @ 70%4 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: Series D+YES
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Will Liquid Death launch a non-water beverage in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%5 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Chobani OatNO
8 SP @ 38%5 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: No funding event in 2026NO
9 SP @ 69%5 days ago