@sagehale

Sage HaleJoined May 22, 2026

beauty creator, freelance, covering wellness/supps. Portland · wellness-skeptic-but-curious.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will REI close one of its co-op retail stores in 2026?YES
50 SP @ 61%28 minutes ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 64%58 minutes ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Will The Farmer's Dog file an S-1 by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 69%4 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: +4% to +6%YES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Will Apple ship a second-generation Vision Pro in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 36%14 hours ago
Will Oasis Health face a public pay-for-rating scandal by Dec 31, 2026?YES
40 SP @ 56%14 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%15 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Under $3.0BYES
5 SP @ 100%15 hours ago
Will Diageo announce a CEO change in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 43%16 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: No qualifying corporate finance eventYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Will Hims disclose >2M GLP-1 subscribers by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%18 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: IPO filing (S-1)YES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5BYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5BYES
42 SP @ 100%21 hours ago
Will Ro (Roman Health) raise a new funding round by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%21 hours ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 58%22 hours ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 55%23 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
8 SP @ 59%23 hours ago
Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Athletic BrewingNO
42 SP @ 58%23 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5BYES
9 SP @ 73%yesterday
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
8 SP @ 53%yesterday
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 62%yesterday
Will Athletic Brewing file for an IPO in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 58%yesterday
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: CalibrateYES
8 SP @ 64%yesterday
Most-viral CPG brand on TikTok in June 2026: Liquid DeathYES
8 SP @ 66%yesterday
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: KanibiNO
8 SP @ 44%yesterday
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Bulk SupplementsYES
8 SP @ 55%yesterday
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 55%yesterday
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Eli Lilly (tirzepatide)NO
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: Open FarmYES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Generic GLP-1 launch in US: 2027 or laterNO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 66%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: Lemme expansionYES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Full ban with no shortage carve-outYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Hims's biggest 2026 acquisition: Modern HealthYES
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Tempur Sealy (smart line)YES
8 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Apple Sleep feature launch 2026: Vision Pro sleep maskYES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
59 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BYES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: CostcoNO
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Eight Sleep's next funding milestone: AcquisitionNO
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Longevity startup IPO 2026: Function HealthYES
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Cornbread HempYES
8 SP @ 67%2 days ago
Oura IPO timing: Q4 2026YES
8 SP @ 42%2 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: Sequence (Weight Watchers)NO
9 SP @ 62%2 days ago
Generic GLP-1 launch in US: Q4 2026YES
8 SP @ 67%2 days ago
Generic GLP-1 launch in US: 2027 or laterYES
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Sunday ScariesNO
8 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Top-selling longevity supplement of 2026: CoQ10NO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?NO
46 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: OlipopNO
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Longevity startup IPO 2026: BioAge LabsYES
9 SP @ 71%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: AcquiredYES
7 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5BYES
9 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Oura IPO timing: Q4 2026NO
8 SP @ 36%3 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: HimsYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Longevity startup IPO 2026: Tally HealthNO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Eli Lilly (tirzepatide)NO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: OllyNO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: CostcoYES
8 SP @ 60%3 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): NestleNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: RitualYES
8 SP @ 66%3 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: OtherYES
9 SP @ 75%3 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Status quo (compounding continues)NO
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Apple Sleep feature launch 2026: Vision Pro sleep maskNO
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Eight Sleep's next funding milestone: Series FYES
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Longevity startup IPO 2026: Tally HealthNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: HimsYES
8 SP @ 69%3 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Tristan Walker (Walker & Co)NO
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago