Rule
This market resolves YES if the FDA approves and a generic manufacturer launches the first generic semaglutide or tirzepatide for sale in the United States on or before December 31, 2027. Source: FDA Orange Book, press releases from generic manufacturers, STAT News, FiercePharma, or similar healthcare news outlets. If no qualifying generic launch occurs by December 31, 2027, this market resolves NO.
Source: https://www.fda.gov/
Resolves by May 23, 2027.
18 comments
patent cliffs are real and pharma always blinks first when generics line up.
patent cliffs are slower than the tariff math i'm watching in my category, but the timing here feels right.
patent cliffs don't move like retail timelines. FDA's gonna drag this past 2027 just like they always do.
why would a generic manufacturer burn capital on a crowded glp-1 shelf when pharma's still litigating patents till 2028.
the patent cliffs on semaglutide and tirzepatide are real lol
the patent cliff on semaglutide hits 2028-2029 and generics always flood faster than the FDA timeline suggests
patent cliffs on semaglutide and tirzepatide don't actually align until 2031-33
the patent cliffs don't align with 2027