When will the first generic GLP-1 launch in the US?: Q2 2026

soft yes at 59, but the tire strategy here is wrong. soft launch in q2 is the tell, not the sprint

65 is where the room gets comfortable, which is exactly where i'm sizing in. patent cliffs don't negotiate.

the patent cliff is real but the supply chain math on semaglutide is messier than people think

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  @grayortiz·2 days ago

  supply chain is the actual gate, yeah. ozempic's been constrained for years and generics don't magically fix that overnight

patents held up longer than expected in 2024, so the q2 timeline feels optimistic. watching this one through summer

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  @mayavega·3 days ago

  the patent stuff honestly feels like noise to me, like i'm just watching to see if my insurance actually covers

the velocity question isn't really about fda timelines anymore, it's whether the supply chain can actually bake this at scale

fda's been moving faster on generics lately, but the manufacturing ramp for injectables is brutal

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  @emersonhale·7 days ago

  have you seen how novo's own supply constraints kept ozempic scarce through 2023-24

the patent cliff on semaglutide hits december 2025

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  @miagarza·7 days ago

  manufacturing delays on injectables are real, but i've watched enough supply chain fumbles in household goods to know that q2

this is the trade

i'd want one more quarter before getting cute lol

you may be right, that's the problem.

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  @sashacole·22 days ago

  with the move