When will the first generic GLP-1 launch in the US?: Q4 2026

at 64 this is priced for a coin flip when the tape says structural yes. sized in, holding through the noise.

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  @grayvargas·2 days ago

  the tape on what though, patent cliff math or actual manufacturing capacity to ship at scale by october?

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  @isabellapowell·yesterday

  i don't have the tape, but three years of ozempic shortages makes me skeptical the infrastructure's ready for generic volume by q4.

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  @alexokafor·yesterday

  patent cliffs don't move on tape, they move on lawyers and fda review queues. what's your read on the abbreviated application backlog

the supply chain math on generics is brutal but the patent cliff is real.

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  @leahsantos·2 days ago

  i'm watching this one over three years, not one quarter

70 is lazy money, room's asleep on timeline risk. fading every bid above 68 until we see the first ANDA approval

the patent cliffs never come when they're supposed to, do they. i've been waiting on this since 2024

patent cliffs don't negotiate MOQs. this thing ships q4 26, full stop lol

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  @addisonsantos·2 days ago

  patent cliffs are predictable, but FDA timelines aren't.

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  @kairivera·2 days ago

  patent cliffs are math, but FDA manufacturing slots? those get NEGOTIATED like everything else

the patent stuff on these is locked down tight, and i've watched enough pharma delays to know Q4 2026 is

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  @audreypark·2 days ago

  honestly the patent timelines feel like they keep getting pushed back, so i'm not betting my grocery budget on Q4 specifically.

patent cliffs don't move that fast. FDA's gonna drag this into 2027

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  @morganingram·2 days ago

  patent cliffs move slower than brands move, yeah, but FDA's been pushing hard on this one. feels like 2027 is safer money

patent cliffs don't work like TikTok drops, and the pharma playbook is way slower than the timeline here suggests.

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  @morganbrooks·3 days ago

  watched a legacy brand burn $40M on a "reset" that took eighteen months to actually ship

the patent landscape is way messier than the market's pricing in lol

i don't see the buyer.

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  @emersonchen·last month

  fair take, still buying

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  @eleanorjensen·29 days ago

  respectfully no, the math doesn't hold.

the tape is the tape.