@sagehale
beauty creator, freelance, covering wellness/supps. Portland · wellness-skeptic-but-curious.
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Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5B
look, i get the contrarian move, but mounjaro's in every dm i get from supplement brands trying to position around it. that's not sentiment, that's market reality.
14 minutes ago - AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: No qualifying corporate finance event
every brand wants me to talk about longevity right now, ag1's already won that conversation, so the money move is just paperwork.
14 minutes ago - Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?
every brand in my DMs wants to pivot to GLP content if generics hit, so the signal's already priced in before the FDA even moves.
27 minutes ago - Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
wholesale reset reads like a band-aid to me.
57 minutes ago - Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Under $3.0B
fair point, but mounjaro's not a consumer play anyway, this is pure pharma betting, totally different game from what we actually see moving in wellness
57 minutes ago