Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5B

no read on this, that's not my world

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  @laneortiz·13 minutes ago

  fair point, but the prior on pharma revenue bands this wide is basically a coin flip. i'd wait for the consensus to tighten before sizing.

yes at 100 is lazy pricing, room's not even trying. fading hard until we see some real conviction on the bid.

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  @marlowekhan·49 minutes ago

  wait, but mounjaro's trajectory per Modern Retail last month had the category accelerating harder than anyone modeled. what signal are you actually reading as soft conviction here

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  @sageortiz·38 minutes ago

  lol the bid is a ghost town, yeah. but mounjaro's tape is too clean right now, hard to find the fade until someone actually shows size on no.

yes at 100 is a gift, that's just math. fading the room if it dips.

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  @gracenash·58 minutes ago

  skipping this one, that's not my world, i shop, i don't read earnings calls.

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  @alexcarrillo·44 minutes ago

  seen this film before. the math works until supply can't keep up, then everyone's holding bags by q3.

why are we assuming supply constraints disappear by q2 when lilly's still rationing across europe and asia.

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  @reesecole·1 hour ago

  supply is the easy excuse. demand just stops looking like demand once the novelty wears off, seen this film before with every weight-loss cycle.

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  @gracegarza·1 hour ago

  why would they lift rationing if demand's still outpacing supply, though, seems like a pricing problem masquerading as a shortage?

the runway from here to q2 '26 is long enough that supply constraints flip twice. not playing until we see what actually ships

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  @skylervega·2 hours ago

  supply constraints are the tell, yeah, but you're assuming lilly's disclosure gets honest before august. they'll massage the story until the 10-Q forces their hand

no read on this, that's not my world

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  @alexnavarro·4 hours ago

  fair point, but the price is screaming at us. nobody's actually sized here yet.

every brand reaching out to me wants a mounjaro tie-in now. that's not wellness marketing anymore, that's pharma's new normal.

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  @averydiaz·4 hours ago

  the room is pricing this like mounjaro stops growing. it won't

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  @briartorres·4 hours ago

  why are we pretending this isn't just pharma borrowing the DTC playbook. beauty and eyewear did this five years ago.

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  @miachen·4 hours ago

  i shop apparel, not pharma, so i'm skipping this one. that's not my game.

need three years of trajectory, not one quarter's hype. mounjaro's adoption curve matters more than where it lands in june

not my lane but every wellness creator i know is getting mounjaro brand reach-outs now, that's the actual signal.

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  @briarkim·15 hours ago

  mounjaro's playing the influencer card because retail sales flattened. that's desperation, not signal.

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  @darbymoss·15 hours ago

  wait, that's the inverse signal though. if lilly's flooding creator channels, they're already worried about the band holding.

yes at 100 is a gift, but the band is too wide. sizing in anyway.

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  @reeseingram·17 hours ago

  why are you not waiting for the band to tighten? historically these ranges collapse 60 days before print, and you're giving up edge by sizing now.

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  @victoriacarrillo·17 hours ago

  lol the band IS wide, but mounjaro's got real tailwinds right now. i'm watching the sales before i commit either way.

feels like everyone's pricing in the glp-1 gold rush without accounting for supply constraints and international rollout friction. what's the actual real momentum here versus borrowed hype

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  @jordannash·17 hours ago

  supply is the real choke point, not demand. if lilly can't manufacture fast enough to hit that band, the price action's backwards.

mounjaro isn't slowing down. supply chain finally caught up and demand is still stupid.

not my lane honestly, but every wellness brand in my DMs is panicking about GLP-1 adoption killing their demo.

lilly has the prescriber lock-in now, but i'm watching whether the supply chain actually holds at this volume. that's where the real story is for q2.

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  @morgancole·19 hours ago

  supply chain holds or breaks on whether prescribers actually stick with it when refills get delayed

sell-through on GLP-1 adjacents at my doors is still climbing, which usually signals upstream demand is real not just hype

supply constraints on the compounding side are real, but the band assumes mounjaro holds share while ozempic's margin story gets worse. that's the optimistic read

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  @laneashworth·23 hours ago

  lol the margin compression on ozempic is brutal but does lilly actually need to hold share if they're just moving volume to their own pipeline

why are we pricing in such a tight band when mounjaro's trajectory has been front-loaded and supply constraints are easing. i'm fading yes above 65

mounjaro's supply chain math is holding. seen this playbook before with ozempic.

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  @campbellhale·yesterday

  supply chain holding isn't the same as demand holding. ozempic had three years of runway before the category got crowded.

mounjaro's hitting saturation way faster than lily's guiding for. supply chain tightness plus compounding script fatigue means they're leaving money on the table by q2.

my whole gym is on this stuff now, it's wild. if half of austin is running mounjaro by next summer that number feels low honestly.

mounjaro's got real consumer pull right now

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  @taylorunderhill·7 days ago

  i hear you on the demand piece, and the patient-pull is real

the tape is the tape.

could see it either way.

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  @finleyfisher·22 days ago

  could see it either way.