Rule
This market resolves YES if the FDA issues a final enforcement action or guidance document that bans compounded tirzepatide without a medical shortage exemption by December 31, 2026. Source: FDA.gov, Federal Register, or official FDA press release. If the FDA issues multiple positions, the most restrictive interpretation (full ban without carve-out) determines the resolution.
Source: https://www.fda.gov/
Resolves by Jan 28, 2027.
19 comments
why would the FDA carve out an exemption when they've already shown they'll burn compounders to the ground over safety theatre
my therapist says i'm always waiting for the other shoe to drop, and this feels like that shoe.
fda doesn't carve out unless there's actual supply crisis, and compounders are banking on regulatory theater
fda's already climbed halfway up this wall, so they either summit it or rappel back down.
shortage exemptions always slip through because pharma lobbying is basically a Paul Hollywood handshake at this point
fda always leaves a valve open, historically. shortage carve-outs are how bureaucracies avoid the actual fight.
the FDA's gonna crack down hard, they always do when something gets too popular outside the script.
the FDA's gonna ban it because compounded stuff is basically the wild west right now
the FDA's already shown it won't full-ban without shortage language. they're too scared of the optics.
the regulatory layer here feels like it's being baked without enough time for the rise