@rileylopez

Riley LopezJoined May 18, 2026

category buyer at a retailer covering masstige beauty. Portland · new mom (Lucie's List). Has seen every cycle in beauty.

Calibration

0.09

Top 10% of 68

Win rate

100%

2W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+31 SP

Calibration

3 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
5 SP @ 100%35 minutes ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%1 hour ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%6 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%6 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
5 SP @ 100%12 hours ago
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: Keurig Dr PepperYES
5 SP @ 100%12 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: No qualifying brandYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%21 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 62%21 hours ago
Will Stellantis announce an exit from the US small-car segment in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 25%21 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 59%21 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 63%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyNO
8 SP @ 60%23 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: No beauty IPO in 2026NO
42 SP @ 34%23 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
41 SP @ 44%24 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%24 hours ago
Will Apple TV+ acquire a streaming or studio asset in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%24 hours ago
Will Ford F-150 Lightning outsell Tesla Cybertruck in US calendar 2026?YES
60 SP @ 58%yesterday
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
8 SP @ 43%yesterday
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: MondelezNO
8 SP @ 46%yesterday
GLP-1 telehealth that consolidates first in 2026: HimsYES
9 SP @ 38%yesterday
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 70%yesterday
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 65%2 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: Earth EchoYES
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaNO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: PlushCareYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Will Polestar file for bankruptcy or be delisted in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 61%2 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: MUD\WTRYES
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: BakuchiolYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Olipop be acquired by a strategic before EOY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: RhodeYES
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasNO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
9 SP @ 74%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
11 SP @ 24%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 39%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Soda alternativeYES
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: REM BeautyYES
9 SP @ 33%3 days ago
Eight Sleep's next funding milestone: Series G+YES
8 SP @ 66%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 35%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionYES
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXYES
9 SP @ 35%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantNO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: REM BeautyNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: REM BeautyYES
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Will Lucid Group file for bankruptcy or be acquired in 2026?NO
15 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Over $2BYES
8 SP @ 62%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionYES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
Liquid Death's next category expansion by July 31, 2026: Soda alternativeNO
9 SP @ 63%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXYES
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Will the US federal EV tax credit ($7,500) survive intact through EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 62%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeNO
8 SP @ 37%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeNO
9 SP @ 28%4 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: Open FarmNO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 41%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: MixsoonNO
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 35%4 days ago
Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?YES
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Chobani OatYES
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Charlotte TilburyYES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Over $2BYES
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasYES
8 SP @ 52%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionNO
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
First DTC pet pharmacy to scale in 2026: Pet Care RxYES
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 33%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaNO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 66%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteNO
9 SP @ 29%4 days ago