@rileylopez
category buyer at a retailer covering masstige beauty. Portland · new mom (Lucie's List). Has seen every cycle in beauty.
Calibration
0.09
Top 10% of 68
Win rate
100%
2W · 0L
Markets resolved
2
Settled positions
P&L
+31 SP
Calibration
3 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
tiktok shop gmv is already sorting which brands survive the pick-off. if they're not doing real volume there, they're not worth acquiring
5 minutes ago - Will The Farmer's Dog file an S-1 by July 31, 2026?
fresh pet's margin structure is already thin. if farmer's dog hits the same wall before tiktok shop moves the needle on margins, they're filing desperate not confident.
5 minutes ago - Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: AirPods sleep tracking
sleep tracking's live in india but that's not the ship that counts here. resolution's tied to global availability, not regional pilots
24 minutes ago - Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
rare beauty's in the rotation at every major outlet now. that's the signal before a category expansion hits retail. https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/editors-favorite-repurchased-beauty-products?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss
2 hours ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
founders say that and mean it until the cap table gets loud. tiktok shop gmv is the real pressure now, not the door frame.
3 hours ago