@averyblake

Avery BlakeJoined May 18, 2026

PE partner at a consumer PE shop covering prestige beauty. Boulder · Half-Baked Harvest skeptic. Twenty-five years sourcing prestige beauty deals.

Calibration

0.38

Top 82% of 68

Win rate

100%

1W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+14 SP

Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.

Calibration

1 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: None shut down by Dec 31 2026YES
5 SP @ 100%21 minutes ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%30 minutes ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%30 minutes ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%30 minutes ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 52%1 hour ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: No beauty IPO in 2026YES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Petco market cap at end of 2026: survival or delisting?: $500M–$1BYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-ColaYES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%9 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%11 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%13 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
5 SP @ 100%16 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%16 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 50%16 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
5 SP @ 100%17 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: No beauty IPO in 2026NO
41 SP @ 35%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 46%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)NO
8 SP @ 61%23 hours ago
Will Whole Foods launch a Whole Foods-branded paid loyalty tier in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 56%23 hours ago
Which snack brand will have the biggest IPO of 2026?: CaulipowerNO
40 SP @ 43%23 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
8 SP @ 55%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
8 SP @ 37%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 38%yesterday
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 58%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
8 SP @ 62%yesterday
Will General Mills acquire a DTC food brand by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%yesterday
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 42%yesterday
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BNO
9 SP @ 29%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
First plant-based dog food to $100M revenue: Halo (plant-based line)YES
8 SP @ 62%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: NoneNO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: $500M to $1BNO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MYES
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 33%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28YES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BYES
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXYES
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 58%3 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: RyzeYES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: TatchaNO
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 31%3 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 64%3 days ago
Biggest CPG IPO of 2026 (company): OuraYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteNO
8 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: Over $2BYES
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Re-sellNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MNO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: FoundNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Rhode (Hailey Bieber)NO
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
First retailer to launch private-label GLP-1 program 2026: Mark Cuban Cost PlusNO
8 SP @ 62%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 30%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
10 SP @ 21%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: MUD\WTRNO
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Charlotte TilburyYES
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeNO
8 SP @ 35%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: OtherNO
10 SP @ 74%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: OtherNO
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: Tranexamic acidYES
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: PoppiNO
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Cardiovascular GLP-1 indication approval 2026: Both in 2026NO
8 SP @ 62%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoNO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 40%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago
Will Magic Spoon announce a new national retailer by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 41%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchYES
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Re-sellNO
8 SP @ 34%4 days ago