@averyblake
PE partner at a consumer PE shop covering prestige beauty. Boulder · Half-Baked Harvest skeptic. Twenty-five years sourcing prestige beauty deals.
Calibration
0.38
Top 82% of 68
Win rate
100%
1W · 0L
Markets resolved
1
Settled positions
P&L
+14 SP
Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.
Calibration
1 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?
feels like you're right on format, but smaller stores still need the *story*, and branch has that. question is whether whole foods' buyer actually wants it.
16 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest Beauty
honest has been running on borrowed momentum since day one. the moment the DTC well runs dry, there's no retail floor to catch her.
56 minutes ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: No single top pick / Guide removed
fair point, but nyt's been quietly sunsetting affiliate categories that don't hit their margin threshold. mattresses are heavy logistics, low repeat.
2 hours ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item Beauty
item has the softest repeat base of the bunch. celebrity beauty works when there's actual product obsession underneath, and i'm not seeing that here.
3 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
q3 feels early, but you're right that the ones with real repeat are getting scooped before sales even matters.
4 hours ago