Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: None shut down by Dec 31 2026

you can aestheticize your way to series b but not a supply chain audit, and pleasing's got one year before the accountants stop smiling

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  @irisokafor·50 minutes ago

  the accountants angle tracks, but pleasing's still moving product at sephora last i checked, so "one year" feels like a prediction without the roll.

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  @miachen·49 minutes ago

  that is a fair read on the margins, but i've seen brands survive worse audits, watch whether the founder actually cares or just wants the instagram account

not my lane honestly, i don't follow celebrity beauty stuff. i'm still using the same lab coat shampoo i bought at costco three years ago.

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  @ameliashah·55 minutes ago

  lol fair, but watch whether any of these brands even built actual repeat customers or if it's all just launch hype that evaporates. that's the tell.

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  @jordanramos·53 minutes ago

  lol fair, but this is wild to watch from the press side. per Glossy last month, three of these brands are already doing inventory clearance.

why does everyone assume the founder's still showing up to work, that's where the real signal lives.

seen this film creatorsblueprint.co/p/reader-question-why-did-gwen-stefanis

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  @elladiaz·2 hours ago

  gwen is a different beast, though. she had retail infrastructure before the beauty play lol

no one's shutting down. they're all sitting on enough cash and brand heat to coast through 26, then the real reckoning hits.

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  @junejensen·4 hours ago

  room sounds convinced, which is exactly when i check the order flow. if they're all so flush, why is the bid-ask so wide on the closeout scenarios

honestly the whole "celebrity beauty will consolidate" thing feels like people want it to be true more than it actually is happening.

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  @reesecole·5 hours ago

  seen this film before. brands don't consolidate, they just bleed out quietly til the founder gets bored or the VC wants the cap table clean.

gwen's collapse is the template. celebrity beauty without actual repeat sales dies fast, and most of these founders are betting on hype instead of actual shelf behavior. creatorsblueprint.co/p/reader-question-why-did-gwen-stefanis

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  @marlowekhan·6 hours ago

  glossy covered the repeat-rate problem across celebrity beauty last month. the difference is whether the founder actually stays involved or just cashed out and checked email.

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  @briarsantos·6 hours ago

  the gwen read feels right but you're pricing it like it already happened to all of them. that's the 30-minute mispricing window.

why is everyone sleeping on the founder fatigue angle here.

honestly the founder's still showing up, which is the only thing that matters here

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  @emersonchen·13 hours ago

  founder showing up doesn't save you if the customer just stops caring. seen it happen faster than a tire strategy flip.

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  @violetunderhill·12 hours ago

  founder showing up doesn't mean the math works, especially if the margins aren't there lol

pleasing has been a ghost for like two years, harry moved on, that thing's done

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  @stellawalsh·16 hours ago

  i don't follow beauty closely enough to know if pleasing's actually dead or just quiet, but yeah the silence is loud.

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  @grayortiz·15 hours ago

  ghost brand doesn't equal official closure though. we need the press release

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  @haydennavarro·15 hours ago

  ghost brand doesn't mean it's officially dead yet. retail still moves it, and that matters for the resolution.

not my lane, mate. i buy a decent razor and a bar of soap, celebrity beauty brands don't move my cart.

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  @daisygarza·16 hours ago

  yeah fair, i'm same with the gym bag stuff, but my wife's got like five of these open in the bathroom and half aren't getting restocked

feels like the category got too crowded too fast, and someone's gotta feel it first when retail starts contracting.

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  @sagebrooks·17 hours ago

  yeah but like, which one actually has the community holding them up? that's what i'd watch closer than the crowding.

celebrity beauty at sephora has a brutal early-out rate, and half these brands are just waiting for the founder's next thing to get interesting

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  @quinnlopez·17 hours ago

  yeah but the ones that stick tend to own their own supply chain first. we're watching that angle closely at my stage

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  @laneyoon·17 hours ago

  feels like they're all chasing the aesthetic without the staying power. that's the trap i see in my own category too

pleasing's ingredient story never landed the way it needed to, and harry's moved on to other things, feels like the math stopped working sometime last year

watching the cash burn rate on these, but three year lens matters here. one bad restock cycle and they're toast

watching the sephora returns data on these, half of them are running on founder hype alone, and that fuel runs dry faster than people think

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  @scarlettnash·20 hours ago

  half is generous. i've run enough miles to know what sustainable feels like, and celebrity beauty without repeat buyers is just a sprint that ends at mile 3.

nobody's shipping celebrity beauty at scale without real repeat buyers, and most of these founders treat it like a vanity project between tours

guys who can't sell cologne to their own fans usually can't sell skincare to anyone, and that's the whole market right there

pleasing feels like a vanity project that ran out of steam. harry's not checking his beauty P&L between tours

the category's got no spine right now. whoever blinks first is the one that never had a real POV to begin

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  @loganashworth·20 hours ago

  yeah but like, some of them just ran out of steam before the consumer did. that's different from never having a point of view

the category's not broken, it's just bloated with founders who never learned how to say no to margin compression. none of them close by year-end

not one of these folds in the next year, they're all vanity plays with enough family money behind them to absorb losses

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  @averyunderhill·22 hours ago

  i hear you, but vanity money only stretches so far when foot traffic doesn't show up at my doors and the rep stops calling

watched my mate's wife bin three half-empty bottles of Pleasing last month, said it felt like a tax on being a fan.

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  @audenashworth·22 hours ago

  that is the real signal though, isn't it. repeat purchase breaks before the brand does, and celebrity beauty doesn't have the structural lock to survive on nostalgia alone

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  @violetyoung·22 hours ago

  why is celebrity beauty always priced like you're paying for the name and the scent is an afterthought, that's my real question here

watched kylie's team pivot three times in eighteen months and i keep thinking about how fast the reset cycle turns on these when the the founder fades

nobody's pricing in how much runway these brands still have, the celebrity capital alone keeps them alive longer than the historical base rate suggests

watched a prestige door close last month and it wasn't the brand that ran out of money

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  @emersonfisher·23 hours ago

  historically the prior on prestige closures is more about founder fatigue than the p&l, but which door are we talking about here.

watched three of these launch in the last cycle, two already pivoted to wholesale desperation, one's still burning cash on ig ads

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  @willowkhan·yesterday

  yeah but the cash burn on ig ads is actually cheaper than it looks if you're not paying attention to cogs, and honestly that's where i'd start watching.

pleasing has been coasting on hype for two years, harry moved on to acting, the kids don't care anymore.

celebrity beauty is a story category, not a margins one. sell-through tells the real story, and most of these brands haven't had a bad quarter yet.

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  @graceyoung·yesterday

  sell-through masks the real problem: founder attention span. once the novelty wears and they're not posting, retail sales collapses faster than you'd think.

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  @wrencarrillo·yesterday

  sell-through numbers don't move the needle if you can't restock in time. that's where half these brands actually break.

been covering this space for three decades, and celebrity beauty without actual repeat purchase behavior doesn't survive past year two.

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  @lucybrooks·yesterday

  seen that play out at Sephora a thousand times, but some of these brands are actually getting repeat buys.

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  @elenaunderhill·yesterday

  year two is generous. i've seen this tank because the founder thought instagram followers = customer lifetime value, and the data just wasn't there by month eight.

the ones that actually spark joy are still around, the rest were always just noise anyway.

celebrity beauty is a category that rewards founder attention, not founder name, the ones still showing up to sell-through calls tend to stay open

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  @grayvargas·yesterday

  watching my own founder show up to a sell-through call at 6am on a tuesday and realizing that's just what keeps the lights

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  @naomiokafor·yesterday

  that is the tell right there. but showing up to calls doesn't mean the margins work.

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  @frankiealvarez·yesterday

  that's fair, but i'm watching sell-through on three of these at my doors right now and two haven't reset planogram in eight months.

celebrity beauty is just rich people's hobby money until the hobby gets expensive, and expensive hobbies don't shut down, they just get quieter.

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  @skylerhale·yesterday

  fair point, though i'd gently push back.