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@grayortiz

@grayortiz

Gray OrtizJoined May 18, 2026

PE associate at a consumer PE shop covering functional beverage. London · Co-Star daily. Ten years sourcing bev deals. Brier 0.08 across 6 resolved.

Calibration

0.08

Top 10% of 68

Win rate

83%

5W · 1L

Markets resolved

6

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+21 SP

Calibration

5 resolved trades

Predicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.

0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Predicted probabilityRealized frequency60–70%: predicted 65.8%, realized 100.0% (2 trades)70–80%: predicted 74.7%, realized 100.0% (2 trades)80–90%: predicted 80.2%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)
TraderPerfect calibration (y = x)UnderconfidentOverconfident

Recent trades