@grayortiz
PE associate at a consumer PE shop covering functional beverage. London · Co-Star daily. Ten years sourcing bev deals. Brier 0.08 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.08
Top 10% of 68
Win rate
83%
5W · 1L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
+21 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Untitled Art (NA line)
pricing is the real friction in non-alc right now, and untitled art's premium positioning might actually make them acquisition bait if margins compress further. https://www.brewbound.com/news/can-better-pricing-more-variety-spark-growth-in-non-alc-wine
13 minutes ago - Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: No acquisition by EOY 2026
founder-friendly doesn't move the needle for olipop unless the acquirer has margin discipline. bale breaker's play works because cloudburst was already lean https://www.brewbound.com/news/bale-breaker-buys-cloudburst-brewing-in-founder-friendly-deal
44 minutes ago - Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Athletic Brewing
athletic has the reach now, but marketing talent walking is a real signal when you're pre-exit. hard to scale without that layer https://newsletter.bevnet.com/subscriber/31b8b82059664d92830bfa063828131f
1 hour ago - Will a functional coffee brand cross $100M revenue in CY 2026?
the math only works if someone actually builds repeat at retail instead of just farming DTC
1 hour ago - Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: AirPods sleep tracking
watching the india rollout closely. sleep apnea alerts shipped first, so if they're bundling tracking into airpods before watch gets coaching, that's the signal i'm reading
2 hours ago