@graydiaz

Gray DiazJoined May 18, 2026

VC associate at a consumer VC fund covering mens grooming. Chicago · Alison Roman stan. Has seen every cycle in men's grooming.

Calibration

0.25

Top 56% of 68

Win rate

50%

1W · 1L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+7 SP

Calibration

2 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%2 minutes ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%1 hour ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%3 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
6 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%14 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 54%14 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: None shut down by Dec 31 2026YES
5 SP @ 100%17 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 41%18 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%20 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
60 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 65%22 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 70%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: None shut down by Dec 31 2026NO
40 SP @ 46%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 42%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 51%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyNO
8 SP @ 58%23 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 45%23 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
8 SP @ 65%23 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 46%23 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%yesterday
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 34%yesterday
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: AnuaYES
9 SP @ 73%yesterday
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyNO
8 SP @ 59%yesterday
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionNO
8 SP @ 58%yesterday
Will High Noon outsell Truly in 13-week US tracked volume any time in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Over $2BNO
9 SP @ 25%2 days ago
Will Chipotle announce its first restaurant outside North America + Europe in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 53%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasYES
9 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 29%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: TatchaNO
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionYES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
First major CPG IPO filing between May 16 and July 31, 2026: OlipopYES
8 SP @ 54%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 58%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $500M to $1BYES
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeNO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeNO
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Keurig Dr PepperYES
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $500M to $1BNO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: OtherYES
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Olipop publicly report (or be reported to have) revenue above $500M for CY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
First major CPG IPO filing between May 16 and July 31, 2026: No major filingNO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 42%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: BakuchiolNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 32%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
10 SP @ 20%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: General MillsNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Rhode (Hailey Bieber)NO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionYES
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Will Whoop announce a new hardware generation in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 42%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: MixsoonYES
8 SP @ 69%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
9 SP @ 23%3 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Will General Mills acquire a DTC food brand by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
10 SP @ 18%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
10 SP @ 27%3 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchYES
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 60%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantNO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Hershey's 2026 acquisition target: Hu KitchenYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: KosasNO
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: CalibrateNO
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: BeautycounterNO
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: Tranexamic acidYES
8 SP @ 38%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 60%4 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BYES
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago