@noelkim

Noel KimJoined May 18, 2026

fractional CFO, freelance, covering masstige beauty. Portland · indie perfume nerd.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 38%4 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%6 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 35%13 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 49%15 hours ago
Will Shake Shack open its 600th US location by end of Q3 2026?YES
60 SP @ 53%18 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 50%19 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Flat to +2%NO
8 SP @ 47%22 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Flat to +2%NO
8 SP @ 60%24 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: No beauty IPO in 2026NO
41 SP @ 36%yesterday
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 33%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
8 SP @ 38%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 50%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
8 SP @ 31%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
8 SP @ 33%yesterday
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 49%yesterday
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 47%yesterday
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingYES
8 SP @ 63%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Will Magic Spoon announce a new national retailer by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Will the US federal EV tax credit ($7,500) survive intact through EOY 2026?NO
16 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Pet wearable to hit 1M subscribers 2026: None discloseYES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: Series B+YES
9 SP @ 72%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: CentellaNO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: COSRXNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Will Ghia raise a Series B by end of Q3 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: Hims Weight LossYES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Most-acquired pet food brand of 2026: Sundays for DogsNO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: No beauty IPONO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingNO
8 SP @ 58%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 33%3 days ago
First plant-based dog food to $100M revenue: Halo (plant-based line)YES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: KosasYES
8 SP @ 65%3 days ago
Hims's biggest 2026 acquisition: TalkspaceNO
8 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: New product line launchNO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Rhode (Hailey Bieber)YES
8 SP @ 53%3 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: BakuchiolYES
9 SP @ 32%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 32%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
8 SP @ 67%3 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: Tranexamic acidNO
8 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingYES
8 SP @ 60%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasNO
8 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 26%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 24%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteYES
8 SP @ 39%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Tempur Sealy (smart line)NO
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?NO
32 SP @ 33%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 35%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasNO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)NO
8 SP @ 41%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonYES
8 SP @ 60%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Will Hyundai-Kia outsell GM in any US monthly sales report in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: BeautycounterNO
8 SP @ 57%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteYES
9 SP @ 35%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingYES
8 SP @ 68%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 49%4 days ago
Most-acquired pet food brand of 2026: The Farmer's DogYES
9 SP @ 36%4 days ago
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Catalina CrunchYES
10 SP @ 81%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 50%4 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Re-sellYES
8 SP @ 39%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 60%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 53%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 54%5 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoYES
8 SP @ 57%5 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsNO
8 SP @ 43%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 55%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 51%5 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Drunk ElephantYES
8 SP @ 59%5 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 34%5 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Over $2BYES
8 SP @ 58%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 61%5 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 41%5 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: $1B to $2BNO
8 SP @ 43%5 days ago