@lucyortega

Lucy OrtegaJoined May 22, 2026

shared-household decision-maker, prestige beauty household. London · marathon runner.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%20 minutes ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%23 minutes ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%2 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: +2% to +4%YES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%6 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%7 hours ago
Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Partake BrewingYES
5 SP @ 100%7 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
5 SP @ 100%15 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%17 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%17 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
5 SP @ 100%19 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 55%20 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%20 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandNO
28 SP @ 0%21 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%22 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
34 SP @ 47%23 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyNO
9 SP @ 62%23 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
8 SP @ 45%23 hours ago
Will Wegmans announce a West Coast store opening in 2026?NO
6 SP @ 47%yesterday
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 44%yesterday
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: MondelezYES
8 SP @ 67%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: No beauty IPONO
8 SP @ 33%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyNO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
8 SP @ 66%2 days ago
Top-selling energy drink under 25 in 2026: C4NO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: BakuchiolYES
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
6 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 54%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: Drunk Elephant relistingNO
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Skincare ingredient of the year 2026: BakuchiolYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Rhode (Hailey Bieber) acquisition price if sold: Under $500MNO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionYES
8 SP @ 62%2 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Selena Gomez expansionYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: RhodeYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
5 SP @ 43%2 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonNO
7 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: Kraft HeinzNO
9 SP @ 26%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
9 SP @ 70%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28YES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 23%3 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: REM BeautyNO
9 SP @ 30%3 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Emily Weiss (Glossier)NO
9 SP @ 25%3 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: TatchaYES
8 SP @ 63%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Tristan Walker (Walker & Co)NO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasYES
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: KosasYES
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: InnisfreeYES
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: Beauty of JoseonNO
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 24%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
11 SP @ 21%3 days ago
Beauty IPO of 2026: No beauty IPONO
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
First DTC pet pharmacy to scale in 2026: VetsterNO
10 SP @ 74%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
11 SP @ 15%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
K-beauty brand to enter Sephora 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: Rare BeautyYES
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago