@grayhayes

Gray HayesJoined May 18, 2026

VC partner at a consumer VC fund covering sleep wellness. Toronto · Marie Kondo minimalist. Twenty years writing sleep wellness checks. Brier 0.25 across 6 resolved.

Calibration

0.25

Top 51% of 68

Win rate

33%

2W · 4L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

-68 SP

Calibration

4 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Hims disclose >2M GLP-1 subscribers by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%35 minutes ago
Will the US RTD cocktail category decline in dollar volume in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 42%2 hours ago
Will AG1 (Athletic Greens) launch a new product SKU by July 15, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 53%3 hours ago
Will Ro (Roman Health) raise a new funding round by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%9 hours ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%13 hours ago
Will Ro (Roman Health) raise a new funding round by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 44%13 hours ago
Will Hims disclose >2M GLP-1 subscribers by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%19 hours ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 48%21 hours ago
Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: Apple Watch sleep coaching / new sleep stagesNO
40 SP @ 48%23 hours ago
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.5B – $4.0BYES
9 SP @ 73%yesterday
Will AG1 (Athletic Greens) launch a new product SKU by July 15, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 68%yesterday
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: RitualNO
8 SP @ 60%yesterday
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: Grove CollaborativeNO
10 SP @ 71%yesterday
Chewy 2026 corporate event: Acquired by PetcoNO
8 SP @ 33%yesterday
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: NoneNO
10 SP @ 74%yesterday
Hot sauce brand to break $100M revenue in 2026: Sriracha (Huy Fong)YES
8 SP @ 56%yesterday
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: OtherNO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 71%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: Bryan Johnson BlueprintNO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Top plant milk brand by 2026 retail dollars: Trader Joe's private labelNO
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: MUD\WTRYES
8 SP @ 54%2 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: International launchNO
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: KanibiNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Cardiovascular GLP-1 indication approval 2026: Wegovy (semaglutide)NO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Klean AthleteNO
8 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Klean AthleteYES
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: No brand disclosesNO
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Athletic Brewing valuation at next funding event: $500M to $1BNO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Oura IPO timing: Q4 2026NO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: Ro BodyYES
11 SP @ 23%2 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: FoundNO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Will Dutch Bros operate 1,000+ shops by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: Andrew Huberman lineNO
8 SP @ 61%3 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Full ban with no shortage carve-outNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: Major retail partnershipYES
9 SP @ 70%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: Care/ofNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Strategic that loses the most CPG market share in 2026: Campbell'sNO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Which snack brand will have the biggest IPO of 2026?: Three WishesYES
8 SP @ 62%3 days ago
Creatine brand of the year 2026: Optimum NutritionNO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Function Health next milestone 2026: Series B+NO
9 SP @ 68%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Sleep NumberNO
8 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Will Olipop be acquired by a strategic before EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: FoundYES
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Liquid Death IPO timing: Q1 2026YES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: HUMYES
9 SP @ 31%3 days ago
Big-tech sleep acquisition 2026: WhoopNO
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
First GLP-1 telehealth to raise a mega-round in 2026: Sequence (Weight Watchers)YES
10 SP @ 80%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Will Slate Auto begin customer deliveries in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Top-selling longevity supplement of 2026: SpermidineNO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
Hims's biggest 2026 acquisition: Modern HealthYES
8 SP @ 44%3 days ago
Oura IPO timing: Q1 2026NO
9 SP @ 22%3 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 34%3 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Eight SleepYES
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: SequenceNO
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Open SpacesNO
8 SP @ 61%3 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: No material eventYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Eli Lilly (tirzepatide)NO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Will a US streaming service win an NBA, NFL, or MLB exclusive package in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 46%4 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Jamie Wolf (Goop)YES
9 SP @ 78%4 days ago
Most-viral CPG brand on TikTok in June 2026: RhodeNO
9 SP @ 22%4 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Charlotte TilburyNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Status quo (compounding continues)NO
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 74%4 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Emily Weiss (Glossier)YES
11 SP @ 24%4 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: No brand disclosesYES
10 SP @ 82%4 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Whoop next funding event 2026: IPO filingYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Emily Weiss (Glossier)NO
10 SP @ 17%4 days ago
GLP-1 telehealth that consolidates first in 2026: No consolidationNO
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1ppNO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
First GLP-1 brand to 1M active subscribers: RoNO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
CPG founder who returns to active operating role 2026: Tristan Walker (Walker & Co)NO
8 SP @ 58%4 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: The Farmer's DogYES
8 SP @ 66%4 days ago
Will General Mills acquire a DTC food brand by June 30, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1ppYES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: OllyNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 67%4 days ago
Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 59%4 days ago
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: No major acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 38%4 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Full ban with no shortage carve-outYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
DTC home fragrance IPO 2026: SnifYES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Most-discussed wellness influencer launch 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 66%4 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: MondelezNO
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Smart mattress brand to hit $300M revenue first: Eight SleepYES
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: Cornbread HempYES
8 SP @ 61%4 days ago