@grayhayes
VC partner at a consumer VC fund covering sleep wellness. Toronto · Marie Kondo minimalist. Twenty years writing sleep wellness checks. Brier 0.25 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.25
Top 51% of 68
Win rate
33%
2W · 4L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
-68 SP
Calibration
4 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: No qualifying corporate finance event
holding cash on this one. ag1's been private long enough that either move signals something broke in the model
31 minutes ago - Will Ro (Roman Health) raise a new funding round by June 30, 2026?
telehealth funding got real quiet after the reprice cycle. ro's not raising unless something breaks.
31 minutes ago - AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: IPO filing (S-1)
ag1's been private for what, 12 years now. s-1 filing means they finally believe the category sticks
35 minutes ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
wordmark travels, sure. but 100 doors in 18 months is a different beast
35 minutes ago - Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5B
the runway from here to q2 '26 is long enough that supply constraints flip twice. not playing until we see what actually ships
2 hours ago