@taylorunderhill

Taylor UnderhillJoined May 18, 2026

influencer/creator, freelance, covering outdoor + gear. Seattle · old soul / vintage everything.

Calibration

0.07

Top 6% of 68

Win rate

100%

1W · 0L

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+14 SP

Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.

Calibration

1 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Stellantis announce an exit from the US small-car segment in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 28%30 minutes ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 43%3 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Flat to +2%YES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
56 SP @ 55%3 hours ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 52%4 hours ago
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 44%12 hours ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 46%14 hours ago
Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: Bedside / HomePod sleep modeYES
5 SP @ 100%15 hours ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 51%17 hours ago
Will Athletic Brewing close a Series D by July 15, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 76%19 hours ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 47%20 hours ago
First GLP-1 subscription brand to publicly report 1M active subscribers in 2026: No brand discloses by Dec 31 2026YES
40 SP @ 51%21 hours ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 39%22 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Other brandNO
40 SP @ 40%22 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 54%22 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 59%22 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 62%23 hours ago
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 55%23 hours ago
Will TJX operate 200+ HomeSense US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 56%yesterday
Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: Coca-ColaYES
24 SP @ 52%yesterday
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 41%yesterday
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?YES
60 SP @ 48%yesterday
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?NO
60 SP @ 42%yesterday
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
45 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
59 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
50 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 37%2 days ago
DTC home fragrance IPO 2026: VitruviNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Supplement brand pulled by FDA in 2026: OllyNO
8 SP @ 34%2 days ago
Most-aggressive strategic in 2026 CPG M&A: UnileverNO
10 SP @ 16%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Will Erewhon open a 12th LA-area store by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 33%2 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?YES
39 SP @ 68%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 36%2 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Charlotte TilburyNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
9 SP @ 24%3 days ago
Will Athletic Brewing file for an IPO in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 31%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 64%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 60%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
57 SP @ 68%3 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Acquired Q3 to Q4YES
8 SP @ 63%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Olipop acquirer (if acquired by EOY 2026): Keurig Dr PepperYES
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 36%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 46%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 58%3 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
54 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
6 SP @ 60%4 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
15 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 43%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 66%4 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
54 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 37%4 days ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?NO
42 SP @ 48%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 35%4 days ago
First functional soda in Costco rotation 2026: Culture PopNO
8 SP @ 53%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 63%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 46%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 36%4 days ago
Longevity startup IPO 2026: Elysium HealthNO
9 SP @ 24%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 45%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 68%4 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 51%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 64%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
9 SP @ 71%4 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
23 SP @ 57%4 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 42%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 54%4 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 44%4 days ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?YES
60 SP @ 76%4 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
17 SP @ 41%4 days ago
Sephora's biggest 2026 brand launch: Skims BeautyYES
8 SP @ 56%4 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 47%4 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 72%4 days ago