@ivyhayes

Ivy HayesJoined May 22, 2026

Erewhon devotee, cookware household. Seattle · NBA armchair GM.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?NO
6 SP @ 39%35 minutes ago
Will PepsiCo extend its distribution agreement with Celsius beyond its current term?NO
8 SP @ 36%46 minutes ago
Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 53%2 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: No single top pick / Guide removedYES
6 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
7 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Other brandYES
6 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: No single top pick / Guide removedYES
5 SP @ 100%4 hours ago
Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 60%6 hours ago
Which sleep/wellness brand gets acquired by Big Tech first in 2026?: Eight SleepYES
5 SP @ 70%6 hours ago
Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%10 hours ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Declines YoYYES
5 SP @ 100%14 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Tuft & Needle OriginalYES
5 SP @ 100%18 hours ago
WHOOP's next major liquidity event by end of 2026: IPO / S-1 FilingNO
13 SP @ 39%22 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: No single top pick / Guide removedNO
21 SP @ 45%22 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: No single top pick / Guide removedYES
41 SP @ 43%23 hours ago
Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 30%23 hours ago
Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Casper Original FoamNO
27 SP @ 52%23 hours ago
First GLP-1 subscription brand to publicly report 1M active subscribers in 2026: Hims & HersYES
29 SP @ 60%yesterday
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Other brandNO
39 SP @ 48%yesterday
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Open SpacesYES
8 SP @ 48%yesterday
Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 29%yesterday
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
15 SP @ 44%yesterday
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Tuft & Needle MintNO
8 SP @ 43%yesterday
Branch Basics next milestone: Target launchYES
8 SP @ 54%yesterday
Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?YES
9 SP @ 34%yesterday
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: Grove CollaborativeYES
9 SP @ 78%yesterday
First sustainable cleaning brand to $500M revenue: Mrs. Meyer'sNO
8 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Casper exit path: BankruptcyYES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
First fresh pet food brand into Costco: JustFoodForDogsYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Avocado GreenNO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Branch Basics next milestone: AcquiredYES
5 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Purple HybridNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Acquired Q1 to Q2NO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
DTC home fragrance IPO 2026: VitruviNO
5 SP @ 46%2 days ago
Will Athletic Brewing double its US distribution footprint in 2026?NO
39 SP @ 28%2 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: OtherYES
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Pet wearable to hit 1M subscribers 2026: WhistleNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Branch Basics next milestone: Target launchYES
8 SP @ 61%2 days ago
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: Branch BasicsYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandNO
5 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Acquired Q1 to Q2NO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Most-viral home brand on TikTok 2026: Great JonesYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Full ban with no shortage carve-outNO
8 SP @ 41%2 days ago
Branch Basics next milestone: No material eventNO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Studio McGee expansionNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Remains independentNO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Most-viral home brand on TikTok 2026: Material KitchenYES
8 SP @ 61%3 days ago
Branch Basics next milestone: AcquiredYES
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
DTC home fragrance IPO 2026: VitruviYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Acquired Q3 to Q4YES
8 SP @ 69%3 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Purple HybridNO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Caraway exit path 2026: Acquired Q1 to Q2NO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Will Hyundai-Kia outsell GM in any US monthly sales report in 2026?YES
24 SP @ 50%3 days ago
Tirzepatide compounding outcome: Full ban with no shortage carve-outNO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Wirecutter 2026 top mattress pick: Purple HybridNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Casper exit path: Remains private under current ownerYES
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Studio McGee expansionYES
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Hearth & Hand (new line)NO
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: BluelandYES
9 SP @ 70%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
Casper exit path: BankruptcyNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: FoundNO
8 SP @ 43%3 days ago
Top-selling sleep aid supplement 2026: Lemme Sleep (Kourtney K)YES
8 SP @ 58%3 days ago
Target's biggest home brand launch 2026: Hearth & Hand (new line)YES
8 SP @ 60%3 days ago
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: Grove CollaborativeNO
5 SP @ 44%3 days ago