@clairealvarez

Claire AlvarezJoined May 22, 2026

Costco loyalist, mens grooming household. SF · Beatles purist.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCoYES
8 SP @ 100%1 hour ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Pleasing (Harry Styles)YES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandYES
5 SP @ 100%2 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 40%2 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%9 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyYES
5 SP @ 100%12 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 40%12 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 46%18 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 57%20 hours ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
6 SP @ 69%20 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
8 SP @ 51%21 hours ago
WHOOP's next major liquidity event by end of 2026: AcquisitionYES
32 SP @ 55%21 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 57%21 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item BeautyNO
8 SP @ 43%21 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 62%22 hours ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierYES
8 SP @ 40%23 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 48%23 hours ago
Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brandNO
39 SP @ 42%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO BeautyYES
8 SP @ 46%yesterday
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
8 SP @ 52%yesterday
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 56%yesterday
Longevity startup IPO 2026: LevelsYES
8 SP @ 51%yesterday
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
5 SP @ 40%2 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: No brand hits $1BNO
8 SP @ 33%2 days ago
Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: GlossierNO
9 SP @ 29%2 days ago
Will Function Health close a Series B by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Will Pizza Hut report a positive US same-store sales quarter in 2026?YES
7 SP @ 45%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Tower 28NO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Disney+ raise its US ad-free price again in 2026?NO
29 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: No L'Oreal acquisitionNO
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Generic GLP-1 launch in US: 2027 or laterNO
8 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by MillsYES
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 42%3 days ago
First DTC beauty to $1B revenue in 2026: TatchaNO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 37%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: TarteYES
8 SP @ 40%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
6 SP @ 44%3 days ago
First mushroom coffee to 1,000 Whole Foods doors: Earth EchoNO
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
Most-acquired pet treat brand 2026: BixbiYES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 30%3 days ago
Most-funded GLP-1 weight-loss app of 2026: Ro BodyNO
10 SP @ 17%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 52%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 30%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeYES
8 SP @ 41%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
8 SP @ 35%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 33%3 days ago
L'Oreal's biggest 2026 indie beauty acquisition: Rare BeautyNO
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeNO
5 SP @ 39%3 days ago
TikTok-viral beauty brand of 2026: Glow RecipeNO
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
5 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?YES
8 SP @ 55%4 days ago
Drunk Elephant new owner's first 2026 move: Status quoYES
8 SP @ 44%4 days ago