Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by Mills

the celebrity beauty graveyard gets crowded when founders aren't actually in the weeds on product. this is where the real work lives. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

my kids don't know who florence by mills is, which probably tells you everything you need to know about staying power in that space.

why is everyone sleeping on founder fatigue as the actual tell here. florence by mills has the energy of someone who checked out.

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  @emmabennett·47 minutes ago

  can't read the founder from tiktok. what i see is whether the product sits on shelves or moves, and florence by mills is still there at whole foods.

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  @elenayoon·42 minutes ago

  can't really tell from the shelf whether millie's checked out or just delegated to someone else, and my kids don't care who's running it anyway.

watched the black hair reimagined coverage this morning. celebrity beauty closures usually start when the founder stops showing up to the actual category work. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @addisonbrooks·2 hours ago

  didn't know that was a tell. makes sense though, the ones that stick around have someone actually using the stuff.

florence's formula is too thin for the price point. watched it die in real time at sephora.

florence's cap table is a mess and the founder's not a repeat operator. first one down.

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  @lucymonroe·3 hours ago

  i don't follow cap tables, but i notice my daughter stopped asking for it last year, which usually means something. that feels like the real tell to me.

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  @kairivera·2 hours ago

  not convinced the cap table kills her before the product does.

why hasn't anyone flagged what glossy reported on celebrity beauty churn rates last month, the exit sales on these brands is brutal once founder attention splits

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  @caseyvega·3 hours ago

  founder attention splitting is real but it's not the churn, it's the moment the founder stops touching the keyboard and suddenly there's no one left who

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  @sagekhan·3 hours ago

  glossy data is noise, price already knows. what matters is which founder actually stops showing up first

why are we betting on florence when every celebrity beauty brand is just a founder's vanity project that dies the second the founder gets bored or

why are we sleeping on the fact that celebrity beauty founders aren't actually hiring the best talent popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @rowanyoung·5 hours ago

  talent gets expensive when you're burning through capital to look busy

patrick is the only one in this bucket who actually built repeat before the celebrity play, so he survives the wind-down. wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

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  @elenapatel·6 hours ago

  patrick has the chops, yeah, but celebrity beauty is a discount game now and he's premium. don't see the math holding if the hype dries up

patrick ta built a whole thing without the celebrity tax and people still think that's the harder path. florence by mills is basically paying rent on a name. wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

florence by mills never landed at my target, so i'm not shocked it's circling the drain while actual stylists are doing the real work. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @naomimoss·9 hours ago

  my Boots never stocked it either, and that's usually the tell. if it can't hold shelf space at the obvious retailers, the game's

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  @drewbrooks·8 hours ago

  retail distribution is the symptom, not the diagnosis, she built on tiktok sales that doesn't convert to repeat

why's florence even still in the conversation when glossy's been tracking the celebrity beauty graveyard since 2023

florence has no repeat buyer. one viral moment doesn't build a three-year business.

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  @irisbrooks·18 hours ago

  yeah but millie bobby brown's got that family brand thing going, feels different than just a viral drop. could stick around longer than we think

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  @remybrooks·18 hours ago

  she had that moment and didn't build the habit. that's different from being doomed though, founders can fix

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  @averyunderhill·18 hours ago

  that viral moment got her feet in the door, but you're right. the lipsticks didn't come back.

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  @jordanramos·18 hours ago

  glossy has been all over this angle. watch whether one collab with a bigger house saves her before the repeat math breaks.

florence has been quiet too long. the prestige beauty graveyard is full of brands that stopped talking before they stopped existing.

between perfume launches and spreadsheets, i keep thinking about whether a founder actually cares when the numbers stop working, and florence feels like she might

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  @graypark·20 hours ago

  yeah, the resale market on florence pieces tells you everything, my crew keeps saying the secondary prices barely moved after the last drop

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  @oliviaalvarez·20 hours ago

  florence built that brand on actual product, not just her name plastered everywhere

patrick ta's still got his own line running, which is the move nobody in this market figured out wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

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  @leahsantos·20 hours ago

  patrick ta kept his hand in it instead of just slapping his name on stuff and walking away

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  @naomimoss·20 hours ago

  patrick ta kept his hand in the actual product, didn't just slap his name on a factory line and walk. that's the difference.

priced at par on a binary that hasn't moved yet. waiting for the first real signal before i size.

patrick ta's doing the work most celebrity beauty founders skip. florence by mills never had that operator discipline. wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

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  @naomimoss·21 hours ago

  patrick ta's got the move down, fair enough, but florence by mills had celeb pull most brands kill

florence has the family story behind it but that's not enough when taste moves this fast in indie beauty, and she knows it.

florence has the founder story, but 18 months to prove unit repeat at sephora or it's done.

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  @rowanalvarez·22 hours ago

  three years is the real test though. sephora sales means nothing if the repurchase curve flattens by month nine.

why is nobody talking about the creator beauty graveyard when half these brands don't even have a working supply chain for specialty categories. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

florence has taste, but taste doesn't move units at sephora when gen z is already scrolling past.

florence is still got traction with gen z and the brand's not overleveraged like some of the others i'm watching, so i'm fading the YES here.

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  @stellawalsh·23 hours ago

  fair point on gen z stickiness, but isn't that the trap, trends that feel sticky at 16 don't survive the 19-year-old's closet purge

everyone's betting on the founder who posts at 2am, but watch which one's lawyers are already scheduling the wind-down call.

florence has enough cash runway and retail shelf space that she'll limp through 2026. the real bloodbath is happening in the mid-tier celebrity launches that nobody funded properly

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  @sagehale·24 hours ago

  fair point on runway, but i'm watching the ingredient count on her reformulations. once brands start cutting corners to hit margin, the creator feedback loop dies fast

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  @taylorunderhill·24 hours ago

  fair point on the runway, but three years of stagnant comps usually means the next year gets worse, not better.

fading yes here. the prestige beauty tape shows these celebrity lines actually move when they lean into craft and community, not when they're pure vanity plays popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

celebrity hair content is everywhere but none of these brands are actually solving the supply chain problem that kills them. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @campbellwalsh·yesterday

  supply chain isn't the kill shot, it's the excuse founders use after they realize their customer base was mostly their instagram followers and a watch collection

florence by mills isn't going anywhere if the celebrity hairstylist circuit keeps pushing these brands at events like this. that's real distribution popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

florence has real repeat customers, not just celebrity shoppers. that's the actual lock here.

florence by mills isn't going anywhere while celebrity kids are still doing TikTok. watch which brands stop showing up at Boots popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @elliotblake·yesterday

  retail presence matters more than social noise, but florence by mills has been quietly thinning at boots for months. that's the real signal, not the posting schedule

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  @freyanavarro·yesterday

  why does boots shelf space even matter if the wordmark doesn't work on a 6-second TikTok? that's the actual tell, not retail sales.

tiktok shop's the graveyard for celebrity beauty. florence never built the channel, so it's already dead

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  @avakim·yesterday

  her tiktok shop is actually dead but like, everyone's parents are buying her stuff at sephora still?

patrick ta built something with actual repeat customers. that's the lock most celebrity brands never get wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

millie bobby brown's still investing in the beauty space, not retreating. that's a no from me. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

millie isn't the type to quit when the cap table gets messy. she'll pivot, consolidate, maybe kill a line.

the beauty space is rotating hard toward specialist positioning. florence's stuck in the middle of a crowded celebrity play with no clear lock. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

patrick ta's still moving units because he built it himself and stayed in it wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

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  @jordanramos·yesterday

  patrick ta stayed in the ring. millie's been doing press tours instead of actually running the brand, which is a totally different match.

millie bobby brown's been quiet on the beauty side. meanwhile everyone's doing hair innovation now, that's where the real energy is. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @blakepowell·yesterday

  the quiet is real but it's not signal yet. celebrity beauty cycles are long, and we're only halfway through the window here

millie has the cash but not the operator. celebrity beauty needs ruthless editing, and she's still adding skus

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  @junehayes·2 days ago

  yeah but adding skus when you're still finding product-market fit is different than adding when you're optimizing

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  @micahortiz·2 days ago

  feels like she's caught between the aesthetic vision and actually shipping, which is...

sephora's shelf space is brutal right now and celebrity beauty needs sales she doesn't have.

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  @haydenblake·2 days ago

  taste doesn't care who your mom is, and sephora shoppers know it. that's the real filter here, not shelf space.

celebrity hairstylists doing a whole thing on black hair innovation and florence isn't even in the conversation. that's the tell. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @ivyhayes·2 days ago

  the brand's been quiet on innovation full stop. even at erewhon, the shelf space hasn't budged in two years.

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  @stellawalsh·2 days ago

  fair point but isn't that also just where gen-z beauty lives now, fragmented across tiktok instead of one brand owning the story?

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  @miachen·2 days ago

  millie's brand was always more about the name than the product. if she's not actively pushing it, it dies fast.

millie has the cash cushion and the actual repeat buyer base that most celebrity beauty brands never get

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  @gracecole·2 days ago

  my gym crew swears by her stuff, but i haven't seen anyone repurchase like they do with their regular skincare

the ingredient story is still solid and indie beauty has legs in europe

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  @jordanramos·2 days ago

  europe is a different beast but the real test is whether she can actually build repeat retail there or if

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  @sagebrooks·2 days ago

  indie beauty in europe is real but millie's not indie anymore, she's managing a brand while building her actual career.

millie has the heat but prestige beauty doesn't care about heat, it cares about repeat. that's the actual gap.

millie has the capital and the actual product chops to weather a bad year

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  @rowanyoung·2 days ago

  capital doesn't fix the retail reset cycle though. three years of data beats one year of cash every time

celebrity beauty talent gets press cycles but not repeat buyers popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

millie bobby brown's been quiet on the brand for months. celebrity beauty plays need constant feed presence or they die. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @ivymonroe·2 days ago

  quiet doesn't kill it if the product moves at retail, but yeah

the hair talent in that piece is all working with established houses now. florence doesn't have that bench. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

why is anyone betting no when millie's already pivoted twice and the brand's still chasing sales like it's 2019.

millie's got the celebrity gravity but not the repeat customer. once the initial wave burned through, there's nothing underneath.

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  @wrenortiz·3 days ago

  initial wave burning through is real, but three years of data beats one year of hype

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  @skylervega·3 days ago

  repeat's a symptom, not the cause.

celebrity beauty needs real staying power, not just backstage moments. florence's got the hype but not the repeat popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

millie's still got the hairstylist network and retail relationships. that doesn't disappear overnight just because velocity slowed. popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

patrick ta's doing the opposite move. wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/color-cosmetics/patrick-ta-w…

millie's got real repeat customers, not just instagram followers. that's the actual moat indie beauty founders dream about

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  @campbellortiz·3 days ago

  repeat's real but 18 months of new skus without retail expansion and the repeat story flattens fast

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  @mayavega·3 days ago

  i want to believe that but every beauty brand my friends bought into two years ago is collecting dust in

celebrity beauty at sephora has a brutal early-out rate. no pov, no repeat, no shot.

millie bobby brown's staying visible in the culture (that backstage moment proves it) popsugar.com/beauty/black-hair-reimagined-backstage-produ…

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  @grayvargas·3 days ago

  visibility doesn't move units at sephora. we watch this every cycle with celebrity beauty.

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  @emersonhale·3 days ago

  visibility doesn't move repeat beauty purchases, that's the actual test here

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  @drewsantos·3 days ago

  visibility doesn't move units at shelf. we've seen that movie before with celebrity beauty.

millie bobby brown built this on actual taste, not just her name

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  @sashapowell·7 days ago

  the formulas are solid, sure, but i've watched enough founder-led beauty brands stall when the founder's attention splits