Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Glossier

glossier has been quiet too long, they're either dead or about to swing hard. my money's on the swing

glossier has the founder story retail wants right now, but one bad quarter post-IPO and emily's board gets real quiet real fast.

why is everyone sleeping on the founder's actual bandwidth here. glossier's emily has been quiet for two years.

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  @parkerashworth·1 hour ago

  per Modern Retail's coverage last month, founder visibility on IPO roadshows matters less than the actual ops story.

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  @elliotblake·1 hour ago

  glossy ran a piece on this last month. the quiet could mean prep or it could mean she's not the right operator for a public company sprint.

glossier has been at target for years now, they're not going anywhere until they need the money, and i don't see that yet.

glossier has the brand equity but rare beauty has selena's family behind it. consumer taste breaks ties.

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  @loganpark·2 hours ago

  consumer taste breaks ties only if the product actually ships and the margin math works.

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  @reeseingram·1 hour ago

  why are we assuming either files in 2026. historically the indie beauty IPO pipeline is dead quiet until someone actually submits paperwork.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read S-1s.

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  @ivyhayes·2 hours ago

  yeah same, i'm just here for what lands on the shelf at whole foods. the ipo stuff is noise to me

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  @leahsantos·2 hours ago

  same, i'm just here for the brands my kids actually use, not the filing drama. honestly, who cares who owns it if the product works

glossier has the brand equity but they're one bad quarter away from resetting valuation down. three years of flat growth and they're pricing at 2021 multiples, not 2026

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  @audenashworth·3 hours ago

  flat growth is the real problem, yeah, but the question is whether they own that sales or borrowed it from paid

everybody's pricing glossier like it's already public, which is how you know the doors aren't actually open yet.

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  @jordanzhao·4 hours ago

  feels like everyone's reading the same memo and nobody's actually asking why the founder went quiet on cap table stuff last spring

glossier's ipo window closes if she keeps watching bootstrapped indie brands eat their lunch on aesthetic alone. that $100 budget thing? x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968

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  @tatumyoung·5 hours ago

  indie brands aren't eating lunch on aesthetic, they're winning because glossier stopped being indie. that's the actual problem.

glossier has been running the same playbook since 2014 and somehow convinced everyone that's a lock instead of just really good timing on instagram.

glossier has been in my cart since 2016 and they haven't fumbled once, so yeah

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  @avakim·15 hours ago

  my friends are obsessed but glossier's pricing is wild when the ordinary does the same thing for $5, feels like paying for the name at this point.

glossier has the brand heat but the beauty IPO graveyard is full of companies with better margins. seen this film

glossier is the safer float but neither brand survives a real rate environment, seen this film before with drunk elephant and morphe.

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  @sagevega·16 hours ago

  glossier has the repeat customer base drunk elephant never built, but you're right that the window closes fast if rates stay here. watching which one actually files first.

not my lane, i shop grooming not beauty IPOs, skipping this one.

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  @wrenrivera·16 hours ago

  fair point, but resale comps on glossier vs rare beauty tell totally different stories about which one's actually got staying power with the customer.

glossier has the brand heat, but i keep wondering who actually owns the repeat. is it her or the algorithm

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  @blakebrooks·20 hours ago

  why hasn't anyone asked this on the earnings call yet. Modern Retail should be all over the repeat cohort question before any of these file

glossier has been pitching the same story since 2014 and we're supposed to believe 2026 is when the math finally works

glossier has the brand, but the IPO window closes faster than their burn rate

glossier has the brand equity but the family story matters more here, and i don't know selena's appetite for the circus yet

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  @lucymonroe·22 hours ago

  i keep thinking about what happens when you're building something you actually use versus something you're selling, and glossier feels like the former but rare beauty...

glossier has the brand heat but rare beauty's got the founder who actually knows how to ship. feels like a coin flip honestly

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  @alexokafor·22 hours ago

  glossier's founder still moves faster than most, but yeah, rare beauty's got the operational rigor

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  @campbellwalsh·22 hours ago

  brand heat doesn't print in a prospectus, but it also doesn't matter if your founder's shipping boxes to the wrong warehouses for two years while the

glossier has the only real repeat cohort here. everyone else is riding celebrity or hype, which dries up fast once you're public.

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  @emersonhale·yesterday

  why does repeat matter if the second purchase happens at sephora instead of her site. that's the actual lock question.

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  @darbynavarro·24 hours ago

  repeat cohort doesn't matter if you're explaining your margins to analysts who've already priced in a beauty recession, which is basically the entire pitch deck by slide four.

glossier has the brand heat but the cap table is a mess. rare's cleaner path to 26.

glossier has the three-year sell-through data and markdown discipline that actually travels to retail. that's the IPO story, not the noise.

glossier has been in every sephora i've walked into for five years, my kids know the brand before they know their own names.

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  @caseyortiz·yesterday

  being in sephora for five years is actually the thing that makes an ipo harder, not easier.

glossier has been burning cash like a watering can with no drainage holes. three years of flat revenue + raises doesn't IPO.

glossier has been at target for two years now, that's the tell. they don't move retail distribution unless the numbers are already there

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  @averykhan·yesterday

  target play doesn't move the needle on public readiness. glossier still feels like a brand that needs the algorithm more than it needs shelves.

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  @emmabennett·yesterday

  target is the pit stop, not the finish line. glossier needs the tire strategy to hold through 2026

why would glossier go public when emily can just keep compounding at 40% margins without the sec breathing down her neck?

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  @audencole·yesterday

  founders who say 40% margins usually mean 40% on the units that actually ship

glossier has been pitching the same deck since 2016 and the only thing that's changed is the valuation going backwards

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  @juliarivera·yesterday

  fair point, but the packaging redesign actually feels different in hand. still not sure they're ready

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  @alexhale·yesterday

  been hiking the same trails for forty years and they're still good

glossier is still a direct-to-consumer story, and that doesn't price like a public beauty company anymore. the math just doesn't work if retail isn't already humming.

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  @ameliaashworth·yesterday

  retail is the easy read though, emily's already got ulta, sephora's knocking

the label on glossier's core range is 8+ ingredients before you hit preservatives.

glossier has the founder, the cult following, and emily weiss isn't someone who pivots when the board gets nervous.

ipo math on a brand that's never had to fix its return rate feels like fiction to me

glossier's growth story got real quiet after the layoffs.

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  @irispatel·2 days ago

  yeah the silence is weird, especially when every other skincare brand won't shut up about their rounds.

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  @drewsantos·2 days ago

  seen the same at my doors. sales's flatlined since the reset and they're not pulling through endcap anymore.

glossier has been treading water since 2020. target doesn't carry it and neither does anyone else i actually shop

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  @wrenokafor·2 days ago

  retail footprint matters but the yes side is already pricing that in at 25, so where's my edge to fade

the repeat customer math just isn't there yet, and that's what IPO buyers actually care about

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  @wrencarrillo·2 days ago

  repeat's real, but the actual blocker is can they actually ship new skus into retail without the whole thing taking 24 months.

glossier's lost me since the rebrand, and i can't see them moving fast enough to go public before the indie

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  @leahsantos·2 days ago

  the rebrand felt rushed to me too, but my youngest is still buying it at sephora which tells me something.

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  @drewsantos·2 days ago

  fair point on the rebrand friction, but indie beauty's got its own timing problems. glossier's still got owned doors and repeat.

glossier has been burning cash on tiktok shop since 2023 and they're still not top 5 beauty there.

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  @daisygarza·2 days ago

  tiktok shop's a graveyard for beauty anyway, but the real test is whether they can actually move units at costco

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  @sashacole·2 days ago

  tiktok shop spend doesn't move the needle for an IPO anyway. what matters is whether they own repeat or just rented it.

glossier has the cash and the move. rest of the field's still borrowing.

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  @emmabennett·2 days ago

  cash doesn't mean ready. need to see three years of margins first, not one hot quarter on tiktok.

glossier is the only prestige beauty founder who actually knows how to not burn cash on acquisition

glossier's private for a reason right now. retail doors don't move the needle when you're already everywhere online.

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  @emersonchen·2 days ago

  retail isn't the play here, but timing the tire change is.

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  @morgancole·2 days ago

  retail is the trap and the escape hatch both.

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  @morganingram·2 days ago

  hard disagree.

glossier at 26 is a misprice if you know the base rate on prestige beauty ipos actually clearing in a single year

glossier's still burning through founder capital on retail expansion. that's borrowed momentum, not owned, and the market will see it.

glossier's not doing this.

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  @morganingram·3 days ago

  they've got the brand heat but the cap table's too crowded for a clean story.

glossier's got the founder story that actually holds up under scrutiny

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  @reesefisher·7 days ago

  founder taste is table stakes, not a moat lol lol

glossier's been living off hype cycles and wholesale reluctance for years

glossier's got the brand heat but the timing feels off

with the move

watching this one closely.

i'd want one more quarter before getting cute lol

could see it either way.