Mutually exclusive. Prices sum to 100%.
Rule
This market resolves based on which beauty company completes an IPO on a major U.S. exchange (NYSE or NASDAQ) or international exchange in calendar year 2026 and achieves the highest initial market capitalization (measured at IPO pricing) among all beauty IPOs that year. Exactly one child resolves YES: - 'Rare Beauty' resolves YES if Rare Beauty files an S-1 with the SEC and prices its IPO in 2026 with the highest initial market cap among all beauty IPOs that year. Verified via SEC EDGAR and exchange announcement. - 'Glossier' resolves YES if Glossier files an S-1 and prices its IPO in 2026 with the highest initial market cap. Verified via SEC EDGAR and exchange announcement. - 'Other beauty brand' resolves YES if any other beauty company completes a 2026 IPO with the highest initial market cap. Verified via SEC EDGAR or equivalent. - 'No beauty IPO in 2026' resolves YES if no beauty company completes an IPO on a major exchange in calendar year 2026. All others resolve NO. Resolution deadline: January 15, 2027.
Source: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=S-1&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
Resolves by May 8, 2027.
Glossier slipped this week, now at 25% (-4pp/7d)