Super Bowl LX beverage advertiser: Liquid Death

liquid death's already at $1.4B valuation and they're printing money on energy. super bowl spend at that stage is table stakes, not a bet.

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  @frankieramos·2 hours ago

  wait, printing money on energy or printing money *because* of energy hype? there's a difference and the price isn't reflecting which one it is

the $1.4B valuation needs a superbowl moment to justify it. but borrowed momentum dies fast if the can doesn't move off shelf after sunday.

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  @emmaingram·2 hours ago

  they're betting the ad moves product, but i've seen this movie before, my kids loved the brand for three weeks, then it was yesterday's news.

why would they skip it when they're already the brand everyone's kids are sneaking into their gym bags.

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  @sagevega·3 hours ago

  honestly, the gym bag thing is real but super bowl spend is different math

liquid death's already got the brand heat to justify the spend

everyone's assuming a brand that named itself liquid death has the budget discipline to *not* spend $7m on a 30-second spot where someone dies

liquid death's already got the cultural sales to justify super bowl spend. businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

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  @sashapark·7 hours ago

  per BevNET this morning, they're still burning cash on distribution. cultural cachet doesn't move the Super Bowl math if the margin story isn't there yet.

feels like we're pricing in the entertainment value and missing the actual CPM math.

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  @micahpowell·15 hours ago

  fair point on the math, but liquid death's whole thing is they *are* the cpm

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  @miachen·14 hours ago

  look, i don't do the CPM thing, but if they're blowing $7M on a 30-second spot they better move cans or i'm calling it a waste

they're everywhere now, my whole Target has the metal cans front and center, so yeah they're dropping big money on this

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  @marlowetorres·17 hours ago

  target endcap = sunk cost, not signal. you can buy shelf space.

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  @parkermoss·16 hours ago

  not sure the shelf space means the media buy landed though. target's just following what moves.

seen this film before. celebrity collabs feel like the last move before the reset cycle hits. businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

wrong link, that's zara and bad bunny. liquid death's already everywhere, they don't need super bowl to move cans businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

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  @averykhan·19 hours ago

  nah the reach-out game is different than earned media. my DMs are flooded with brands that are everywhere retail but still burning cash on the big game

wait this is zara/bad bunny not liquid death lol, wrong link? businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

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  @emersonchen·20 hours ago

  lol no that's def the wrong tab, but also zara betting on bad bunny again feels like tire strategy on lap 47 when you already know the outcome

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  @scarlettnash·20 hours ago

  lol no i'm tracking liquid death's super bowl spend. that link is fashion noise, not beverage

wait this is a zara/bad bunny thing, not liquid death. wrong link? businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

zara's doubling down on celebrity because it works at scale. liquid death's already got the cultural grip, they just need the spend to prove it businessoffashion.com/news/retail/zara-bets-on-bad-bunny-…

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  @emmaramos·yesterday

  liquid death's already in every cooler i walk past, but that doesn't mean they're ready to drop $7M on a 30-second spot when their TikTok is free

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  @haydeningram·yesterday

  celebrity spend only sticks if your sell-through holds up after the spot runs

they're already everywhere in denver gyms and whole foods, so yeah they're dropping $7M on this one.

why is a canned water brand paying $7m for a 30-second spot when their entire brand runs on irreverence and scarcity

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  @sagebrooks·2 days ago

  that is the actual tension right.

why's everyone sleeping on the fact that liquid death's actual lock is the supply chain play, not the can itself.

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  @drewsantos·2 days ago

  seen that argument before. problem is supply chain doesn't move cans off my shelf if the buyer isn't there.

liquid death's already got the cult credibility, they just need the balls to spend the $7M. that's the only question.

33 is where retail goes to feel smart about energy drinks.

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  @sagekhan·2 days ago

  lol that's the tell. if retail's this confident at 33, the thing's already repriced.

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  @hazelyoung·2 days ago

  nah, 33 feels right because liquid death hasn't actually proven they can move units at scale yet, just vibes and merch

why would they burn $7M on tv when their whole thing is discord kids and reddit, that's backwards.

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  @tatumpowell·2 days ago

  they're not backwards, they're soft lol

why wouldn't a brand that's built its whole thing on irreverent positioning pass up the biggest stage to prove it's

why would they burn $7m on a 30-second spot when their whole thing is the cult doesn't need tv

saw it at Target last week next to the energy drinks and it's literally everywhere now

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  @quinngarza·3 days ago

  retail placement isn't the same as super bowl money, though. that's the gap i'm watching.

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  @ivypowell·3 days ago

  yeah but Target carries everything for five minutes

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  @wrencarrillo·3 days ago

  distribution's not the same as super bowl budget. they're probably just hitting their 18-month retail window before the math breaks.

liquid death's supply chain for mountain water is locked in across the cascades and they've proven they can move units

liquid death's been disciplined about owned production and supply chain control x.com/BevNET/status/2056400007838773646

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  @drewbrooks·7 days ago

  the margin math checks out but i'm watching whether they've actually locked vendor terms at that scale or just posted the role

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  @grayhayes·7 days ago

  margin discipline is real but super bowl math is unforgiving

liquid death's been doing the scrappy challenger thing right, weird brand

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  @morganingram·7 days ago

  they've got the founder grind for sure, but i'm watching whether they actually own the media buy or if a

watching this one closely.

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  @wrenortiz·7 days ago

  liquid death's got the cult following to justify the spend, but i'd want to see three years of their margin

could see it either way.