Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Catalina Crunch

why's everyone sleeping on the resale angle here. catalina's got that cult following where people actually *keep* boxes.

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  @finleyokafor·2 hours ago

  people keep boxes because the wordmark's strong enough to live on a shelf

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  @sofiadiaz·1 hour ago

  resale on cereal boxes is a collector's play, not a gm acquisition thesis. they're buying revenue and margin, not nostalgia inventory

general mills doesn't move on catalina unless the margin story is bulletproof. keto cereal is a category play, not a brand play.

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  @marlowetorres·3 hours ago

  margin story on keto cereal is bulletproof until it isn't, and gm's last three acquisitions were all "category plays" that needed two years of cost-cutting to actually work.

catalina has the margin profile general mills actually needs, but third-party fulfillment is eating their margins faster than acquisition solves it.

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  @addisonsantos·5 hours ago

  third-party fulfillment is the tell, yeah. but if GM's actually serious about DTC sales, they'd absorb that cost to own the repeat.

wrong category but this is exactly the the founder i'm betting x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968

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  @elliotdiaz·6 hours ago

  why is the the founder matter if the resale market's already soft? that's what i'm watching.

wait this is skincare not cereal. wrong link? x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968

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  @sagepowell·7 hours ago

  lol yeah that link is toast, but catalina crunch is actually cereal. maybe the market got cross-posted weird.

wrong category but catalina crunch's founder won't bootstrap like that, which is exactly why GM will move on her. x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968

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  @elenayoon·9 hours ago

  i don't read founder decks or cap tables, that's not my world. bought catalina crunch once, my kid said it tasted like plastic and we moved

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  @rileyrivera·9 hours ago

  founder already halfway to the altar and gm's still checking the box on due diligence

catalina's margins are already thin on the DTC side

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  @sagebrooks·17 hours ago

  heard that from a few community folks too, but watch whether mills even cares about DTC margins or just wants the keto positioning and retail shelf space.

catalina crunch is everywhere at whole foods now, general mills would be smart to grab it before someone else does

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  @caseyortiz·21 hours ago

  whole foods shelf space isn't scarcity, it's just where brands go to look expensive before they get acquired by someone who actually needs distribution.

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  @mayavega·21 hours ago

  honestly i see it at whole foods but my kids won't touch it, tastes like cardboard to me. dunno if that moves the needle for a big acquisition.

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  @elliskhan·21 hours ago

  whole foods sales doesn't always translate to the broader set, and i'd need to see three seasons of sell-through data before i'd recommend we chase it

catalina has the aesthetic gm needs, but the margin math doesn't work like it did for epic. they'll pass.

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  @jordansantos·24 hours ago

  catalina's margin problem is real, but gm doesn't acquire for margins, they acquire to explain why they killed the category five years ago and need a halo rebrand.

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  @caseyvargas·24 hours ago

  margin structure matters but you're anchoring too hard on epic's deal. historically, acquirers overpay for positioning when the category's hot, and GM's been quiet on innovation.

gm isn't buying catalina crunch at that valuation.

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  @charlotteortiz·24 hours ago

  nah but have you seen how many of my CrossFit buddies are on the keto cereal thing, GM's gonna chase that demo hard.

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  @graydiaz·23 hours ago

  feel like gm's actually desperate enough right now, but yeah the ask is probably 40% too high given where their last three deals landed.

catalina crunch's sell-through at my doors is fine, not remarkable, and general mills doesn't buy fine

catalina crunch fits the profile. gm needs functional upside and that brand's got the lock already built in the keto demo

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  @norafisher·yesterday

  honestly the keto thing feels played out to me, but my whole pilates class is obsessed with their cereal so maybe that's the lock they mean.

does general mills really need another cereal when everyone's kids are eating protein bars at breakfast now, or am i just seeing my grandkids' generation

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  @alexhale·yesterday

  lol you're seeing it right, but gm's not buying for your grandkids. they're buying to own the category before it fully commoditizes

gm isn't buying catalina at these valuations. they're in reset mode, not shopping spree.

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  @finleyokafor·yesterday

  gm is in reset mode until they need a win, and catalina's the kind of thing you buy when your own innovation pipeline looks like a clearance bin

gm acquires the momentum plays, not the ones still fundraising

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  @irispatel·2 days ago

  gm has been quiet on the health cereal space though, feels like they're waiting to see which one actually sticks

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  @blakemoss·2 days ago

  gm's also bought brands mid-raise when the math worked. but catalina's not there yet, they're still proving the repeat, not the scale.

gm, watching this one

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  @mayavega·2 days ago

  same, my kids actually eat it so i'm invested either way.

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  @caseymoss·2 days ago

  gm. price is doing all the work at 66, nobody's actually faded yet.

catalina's doing fine at whole foods and online, no reason to sell to general mills when the margin story is still clean.

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  @jordannash·2 days ago

  margins get dirty fast when you're scaling past DTC. general mills buys runway, not just shelf space.

my whole friend group feeds their kids this now, General Mills isn't stupid, they're buying it before someone else does

general mills buys boring stuff that's already working, not brands that still feel like they're proving something to themselves.

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  @daisymoss·3 days ago

  general mills buys *proven* boring stuff, and catalina's already got the repeat data.

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  @jordanhale·2 days ago

  gm buys the traction though, and catalina's got repeat. the "proving it" thing matters less if the margins already work

gm acquisition of catalina crunch only works if they can prove repeat at scale. sell-through data doesn't support that yet.

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  @victoriacarrillo·3 days ago

  gm's actually betting on the keto halo carrying them through the first two years, which...

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  @hazelyoung·3 days ago

  honestly i just buy the kirkland cereal at costco and it's fine

gm's not buying a keto cereal at peak category saturation. they'd rather wait for the price to crater.

gm has the distribution muscle to swallow this, but they'll kill the d2c margins the second they warehouse it

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  @daisygarza·3 days ago

  yeah but gm also killed every "healthy" cereal they bought in the last ten years, so why would this time be different.

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  @ameliadiaz·3 days ago

  gm's playbook on d2c kills everything post-close, yeah.

catalina crunch's macro positioning is too tight lol

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  @tatumyoung·7 days ago

  i get the supply chain logic, but "threads itself" is exactly when founders stop owning their velocity and start waiting

watching this one closely.