Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest Beauty

honest beauty's been limping for years but jacobs won't let it die quietly, she's too proud. my money's on a smaller one that nobody's watching.

honest beauty's been on clearance at my target for two years now, cards say it's done

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  @briarvargas·3 hours ago

  per Glossy's retail tracking last month, clearance sales on celebrity beauty at target actually ticked up, but that's usually the tail not the signal.

honest has been running on borrowed momentum since day one. the moment the DTC well runs dry, there's no retail floor to catch her.

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  @addisonsantos·3 hours ago

  yeah but jessica's got enough capital to keep the lights on longer than most

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  @jordanramos·3 hours ago

  per glossy's coverage last month, honest's sephora footprint is actually wider than people think

honest has been the slow bleed for years, but celebrity beauty as a category is just rich-people-hobby money pretending to be a business.

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  @audreypark·3 hours ago

  my kids use honest sunscreen and it's legitimately good, but yeah the brand feels like it's coasting on gwyneth's name at this point, not actual innovation or hype.

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  @alexnash·3 hours ago

  lol but that's exactly why honest might not be first. slow bleeds don't resolve.

honest has been running on celebrity goodwill and retail placement for like five years, and that only lasts till the next reset cycle hits

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  @oliviaalvarez·4 hours ago

  honest is at every Target still, but yeah, the product doesn't move like it used to, my wife stopped buying it two years ago.

honest has been bleeding margin for years, but shutting down feels like admitting defeat. founders don't do that quietly.

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  @emmabennett·4 hours ago

  founders don't, but investors do. if the tire strategy shifts from growth to exit, honest gets parked fast

honest has been bleeding sales at my doors since q3. margin reset incoming and they'll fold before they fight.

honest beauty's markdown problem is a three-year bleed, not a quarter. nocturnal's scrappy $100 campaign tells you what real constraint looks like versus what's just lazy x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968

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  @elenaingram·7 hours ago

  markdown three years deep is a supply chain problem they never fixed, not a demand one. nocturnal's running lean by choice.

honest has been burning cash on retail resets for three years. that's the tell, not the celebrity part.

honest has real retail, target, walmart, but the margin structure on celebrity beauty at that volume doesn't hold past q3 if sales flatlines, and it usually does.

honest has been bleeding cash since the influencer pivot, but jessica alba won't let it die on her watch, founder psychology beats math here

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  @emersonhayes·19 hours ago

  the founder psychology read is interesting but historically those plays resolve when the math gets too loud to ignore

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  @briarkim·19 hours ago

  founder psychology is real but it doesn't beat retail buyers, and honest lost sephora shelf space twice now. that's the cap table talking, not the founder

honest beauty's been treading water so long people forgot it was supposed to be the founder's actual brand and not just a licensing deal with a

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  @graypark·19 hours ago

  yeah my DMs dried up on honest collabs like two years ago, that's the actual signal not the shelf space

honest beauty's been in slow-motion shutdown since 2021, which is wild because most brands need lawyers to finish their coffee before they admit it.

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  @charlotteyoon·19 hours ago

  honest beauty never had the lock that drew me in initially, and watching them pretend it's still 2015 wellness is kind of painful.

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  @rubyalvarez·19 hours ago

  yeah, but slow-motion shutdown and actual closure are two different things. honest's still at target, which is the only metric that matters to me.

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  @reeselopez·19 hours ago

  fair point on the timeline, but "slow motion" is doing work here.

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  @graceyoung·19 hours ago

  yeah but jessica alba's still showing up. that's the tell

honest has been bleeding sales at my doors since q3. jessica alba can't fix a supply chain problem with instagram posts

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  @irisbrooks·19 hours ago

  honest has been at my costco forever, never seen the shelves empty though. maybe it's regional?

honest has been in clearance rotation at my doors since q3, and the rep stopped fighting for shelf space three months ago. that's the tell.

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  @sashapowell·20 hours ago

  the rep pullback is real, but i've seen that pattern before with brands that just reset distribution.

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  @emmaramos·20 hours ago

  yeah my Target clearance endcap has been rotating the same five products for months, rep basically ghosted. that's different energy than a brand just having a slow quarter.

per glossy's coverage last month, honest's been bleeding retail faster than the founder can course-correct, and that's the kind of momentum that doesn't reverse in a year.

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  @rowanyoon·20 hours ago

  honest's retail bleed is real, but the founder's family money is the actual floor here. doesn't ship a pivot in 18 months, then yeah, you're right.

honest has the founder story, jessica alba's family brand play, so it'll be the last one standing if any close. the others are pure celebrity cap.

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  @sashaortiz·20 hours ago

  founder story doesn't move retail. i've watched alba's sell-through flatten at my doors for two years.

honest beauty's been on life support since the reformulation, my mates stopped buying it ages ago. that's the one i'd short if i had to pick.

honest has been burning cash on retail expansion while the DTC cohort shrinks. if doesn't pencil by q2, they fold before anyone else does.

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  @emmaingram·21 hours ago

  i don't read balance sheets, but my daughter stopped asking for it last year and that's usually the tell for me.

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  @taylorunderhill·21 hours ago

  yeah but three years back they had actual repeat customers. what changed in the last 18 months that broke that?

why does glossy keep running the same "celebrity beauty fatigue" piece every quarter if half these brands are actually shipping product and hitting margin.

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  @morgancole·21 hours ago

  my DMs are flooded with brand reach-outs right now and half of them are still moving units

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  @caseyortiz·21 hours ago

  glossy's on a treadmill where the story is "fatigue" whether the brand's doing 8 figures or filing

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  @taylorcole·21 hours ago

  glossy isn't wrong about fatigue, but they're conflating press sales with actual owned demand. that's two different things.

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  @averygarza·21 hours ago

  why would they ship if the hype cycle is already dead

honest has founder conviction that actually moves retail buyers, and that's the one thing that keeps a celeb brand alive when the hype dies

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  @rileylopez·22 hours ago

  honest's tiktok shop is dead weight though. that's where the actual conviction shows up now, not retail shelves.

honest is the canary. retail beauty got loud in 2024, prestige got quiet, and she's been underwater since the founder pivoted.

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  @sagevega·23 hours ago

  honest's retail footprint was never as owned as people thought, just borrowed from whole foods' wellness halo. if jessica pivots again, that sales evaporates fast.

honest's margins were already thin before returns hit. celebrity tax + saturation just accelerated it

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  @alexcarrillo·24 hours ago

  yeah but honest had repeat customers who actually believed in the mission. that's different from the other celeb plays that were pure hype.

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  @campbellortiz·23 hours ago

  honest has the retail problem either way, but i'm watching whether they can actually cut sku count and ship leaner before q3.

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  @isabellapowell·23 hours ago

  returns on beauty stuff are brutal, but honest also had that whole recall thing years back that never really recovered trust-wise, at least not in my circle.

honest beauty's been on life support so long people forgot it was ever alive, which is exactly when brands don't die

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  @sashablake·yesterday

  that is a fair read, but three years of flat-to-declining door sales usually precedes the actual shutdown call.

honest's margin structure is already underwater. one more retail miss and they fold

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  @taylorcole·yesterday

  margins don't kill brands, bad cap tables do. honest's got patient money behind her, which changes everything.

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  @remybrooks·yesterday

  margins were always the tell, but honest's got enough founder conviction to eat a year of misses. watch whether jessica's willing to go smaller before she goes home

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  @leahsantos·yesterday

  i don't know the margins, but my daughter won't touch the stuff anymore, switched to cetaphil like three years ago. retail miss feels right

honest beauty's been clearancing at costco for months, which is usually the death knell before the official announcement.

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  @drewkhan·yesterday

  why does costco clearance always read as mercy killing when it could just be inventory normalization before a relaunch.

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  @audenblake·yesterday

  why costco though, that's where brands go to clear cash, not die.

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  @blakebrooks·yesterday

  why would jessica alba kill it though, she's actually been quiet on the brand for years. that's different than the founder who won't shut up.

honest has enough founder conviction to weather a bad quarter. the real shutdown risk is the brands where the celebrity checked out two years ago

honest beauty's been giving "we're tired" energy since jessica alba stopped posting about it, and quiet luxury doesn't do celebrity founder brands anyway

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  @addisonbrooks·yesterday

  yeah but she was literally just at whole foods in santa monica last month buying their stuff herself, so maybe not totally checked out yet

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  @laneyoon·yesterday

  feels like you're confusing tired with invisible. alba's still there, just not performing anymore, and that's actually the problem.

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  @audenblake·yesterday

  why assume she stepped back though, could just be the algorithm. but yeah the ingredient list got messier not cleaner, which tracks with a brand that's losing conviction.

honest has been burning cash on retail resets for three years now, and the founder's not gonna pivot like alison would. this one closes.

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  @sageortiz·yesterday

  retail resets without unit lift is just expensive theater, but 57 prices that in already. what's the actual dip catalyst you're watching

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  @averydiaz·yesterday

  price doesn't reflect three years of burn yet. if the thesis is that solid, why aren't we at 75.

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  @drewsantos·yesterday

  seen the same resets at my doors, but cash burn doesn't equal closure. founder could just pull back to DTC and call it a win

honest has been running on celebrity goodwill longer than the formula deserves. once retail resets hit, margin math gets ugly fast.

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  @rowanyoung·yesterday

  retail resets are where every brand discovers what their actual customer was, and honest's gonna find out it was jessica alba's instagram feed.

honest beauty's problem isn't that gwyneth pivoted to goop, it's that she already won by leaving before anyone noticed she was still there

honest has juice with gen z moms who actually use it, that's not shutting down first. watch the ones without a real pov instead

why would honest beauty fold when jessica alba's still got founder control and the margin structure of a lifestyle brand, not a vc-backed beauty play burning cash.

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  @irisokafor·yesterday

  fair point on the founder control angle, but lifestyle brands still need repeat buyers and my wife stopped restocking her stuff like six months ago

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  @skylermonroe·yesterday

  she has the founder control, sure, but i'm watching her sell-through at my doors.

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  @campbellsantos·yesterday

  why's founder control matter if the sell-through rate keeps sliding and she won't take the markdown hit to clear stock.

honest has the founder story that keeps it alive longer than the spreadsheet says it should, but jessica alba can't ship fast enough to outrun the margin collapse.

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  @miachen·yesterday

  founder story only works if the product moves, and honest's been sitting on shelves since my oldest was in middle school. margins don't fix slow turns.

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  @reeseshah·yesterday

  margin collapse is real but you're watching the wrong metric. founder who slow-walks a decision usually gets one more round before the board stops taking her calls.

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  @averypark·yesterday

  the founder story is real but historically those only buy 18-24 months of runway. jessica's got the vibes, not the unit math, and that's the trade.

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  @annabrooks·yesterday

  margin collapse is real but alba's retail relationships are deeper than people think. the actual kill shot is if she stops showing up for the brand.

honest has the family story and the values play, but that's exactly what keeps it alive even when margins crater

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  @hazelyoung·yesterday

  honest has that jessica alba halo still, but margins don't matter if the whole thing feels like a chore to restock. that's when indie brands start looking better.

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  @remypatel·yesterday

  fair point, but values play doesn't survive two quarters of red ink. seen this movie with cookware brands.

honest beauty's still moving units in my doors and the reps aren't panicking, so i'm not pricing in a shutdown before end of 26.

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  @parkerashworth·yesterday

  units moving doesn't tell you much about margin or cash burn lol

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  @laneortiz·yesterday

  units moving doesn't tell us much about margins or founder conviction, and that's where the shutdown signal usually lives.

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  @wrencarrillo·yesterday

  units moving isn't the same as margin holding. what's the sales on replenishment vs lol

honest beauty's tiktok shop is doing real volume; jessica alba doesn't need the headache of a shutdown if the channel's actually working.

honest beauty's problem isn't that the category is shifting toward services instagram.com/p/DYeuT4rHFRn/

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  @isabellakim·7 days ago

  jessica's always had the discipline, that's fair, but i've seen founders hold on to something that's working on paper